Main

Middle East Archives

October 27, 2005

Lebanese army surrounds Palestinian camps

This isn't even on CNN's radar, though it can be found on BBC with moderate looking:

The Lebanese army has tightened the noose around seven Palestinian faction bases close to the Syrian border.

The move comes amid claims by a Palestinian faction leader that his men are holding six Lebanese soldiers captive and a report by the UN envoy calling for action to disarm the fighters.

Officers said about 500 soldiers backed by 50 armoured cars were now deployed around the camps in the foothills of the Anti-Lebanon range that marks the border, two operated by the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command (PFLP-GC) and five by Fatah-Intifada.

The Al Jazeera story
The BBC story

December 11, 2005

Iranian airplane crash - two kinds of rhetoric

Al Jazeera reports on the fallout from the crash of an Iranian C-130 into an apartment block, starting with this statement from Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad:

"But what is important is that they have shown the way to martyrdom which we must follow."

That's the first time I've heard of dying in a fairly arbitrary accident as martyrdom, unless it's in the sense of martyrdom to the cause of not making planes fly when they need maintenance. This fits with the longstanding tendency of Iranian government speakers referring to any Iranian dead as martyrs.

The article does also have a segment that felt slightly more slanted than normal Al Jazeera coverage:

The C-130 workhorse - bought from the United States before the 1979 Islamic revolution and starved of crucial spares by US-imposed sanctions - crashed into the foot of a high-rise housing block after suffering engine failure.

That suggests a bit of blame shifting that I'd say is unwarranted. It's not the responsibility of a nation to supply spare parts for machinery sold to a previous regime and subsequently acquired during a revolt. There's a difference between, say, embargoing medical supplies and embargoing replacement parts for military transport planes.

December 14, 2005

Turkish EU roadblock: the Armenian genocide and freedom of speech

A trial that's going on right now in Istanbul is fairly emblematic of problems Turkey faces in trying for EU membership. Turkish author Orhan Pamuk is charged with "insulting Turkishness" after stating in a magazine interview that the Ottoman empire was responsible for the death of thirty thousand Kurds and a million Armenians in Turkey.

This goes directly to the long-standing argument over whether there was or was not an Armenian genocide in Turkey in 1915; the Turkish government has never admitted that any genocide occurred. From the photographic and documentary evidence I've seen, the genocide did happen, much in the way genocide has occurred in recent years in the Sudan and Rwanda. Pamuk believes it did as well, and must be discussed:

"What happened to the Ottoman Armenians in 1915 was a major thing that was hidden from the Turkish nation; it was a taboo," the writer explains, at an Istanbul cafe overlooking the waterfront.

"But we have to be able to talk about the past."

Another author has this to say:

"We must face these realities to become a real democratic country. We are giving a struggle for this, to give light to the dark pages of our history," Ragip Zarakolu explains, watching his latest book roll-off the printing presses.

"Some conservative, nationalist and even fascist circles are very disturbed by this, but we are in need of it. Not for the Armenians or any others - but for citizens of Turkey."

Opposing them are those who want to maintain the non-discussion status quo:

"He overstepped the mark," insists group leader Kemal Kerincsiz, adding proudly that his association has also filed charges against eight other writers.

"Pamuk is a literary figure, but he made political comments that were ill-informed, untrue and anti-Turkish. We acted on behalf of all society. Orhan Pamuk should not have played with history, and with the sentiments of Turks."

By denying the past in this way, people continue the negative legacies of their forebears. Honest understanding of the good and the bad lets you celebrate and continue the good while excising the bad and never repeating it. I can only believe that those who deny the evils of those who went before already feel somehow disempowered, and can either not stand to let go of false pride in their history or want the option of repeating what went before.

The BBC story

January 24, 2006

Iran blocks the BBC

At least for the moment, attempting to access the BBC website from inside Iran yields an "access denied" sign.

From the BBC article:

BBC Persian.com is the most popular of the BBC's non-English language websites, receiving about 30 million page impressions a month - about half of which are from inside Iran.

Al Jazeera appears not to have reported on this yet, though it does have an article about Google's self censorship in China.

March 06, 2006

You Don't Own Me (Hamas and al Qaeda)

Radical though they may be, Hamas isn't about to let al Qaeda claim de facto ownership over them. Following a chiding video from Ayman al-Zawahiri of al Qaeda, Mahmoud al-Zahar, the leader of the legislative bloc of Hamas, has effectively told al Qaeda to get stuffed:

"We are a movement that neither brands other Muslims as infidels, nor abandons them. We are a movement that lives with the people in a real world and try to attract them to Islam through wisdom and good advice."

I suspect the main message here is for al Qaeda to back off, as this represents a substantial shift from the founding goals of Hamas. That said, Hamas is now in power. It can afford to be less militant, and might not be able to afford to be as radical as it once was.

The al Jazeera story

March 08, 2006

Not civilizations, but eras - Wafa Sultan

Arab-American Psychologist Wafa Sultan: There Is No Clash of Civilizations but a Clash between the Mentality of the Middle Ages and That of the 21st Century from the Middle East Media Research Institute TV Monitor Project.

A notable quote:

My colleague has said that he never offends other people's beliefs. What civilization on the face of this earth allows him to call other people by names that they did not choose for themselves? Once, he calls them Ahl Al-Dhimma*, another time he calls them the "People of the Book," and yet another time he compares them to apes and pigs, or he calls the Christians "those who incur Allah's wrath." Who told you that they are "People of the Book"? They are not the People of the Book, they are people of many books. All the useful scientific books that you have today are theirs, the fruit of their free and creative thinking. What gives you the right to call them "those who incur Allah's wrath," or "those who have gone astray," and then come here and say that your religion commands you to refrain from offending the beliefs of others?

You can also watch the video clip on the site. What's both notable and sad about her comment on useful scientific books is that at one point, the Arab world was the repository of learning while the European world fell apart for a while.

*Ahl Al-Dhimma are non-Muslim monotheists living in an Islamic state.

April 02, 2006

Jill Carroll actually free

Jill Carroll is back in the United States now and, apparently, free to speak.

The journalist has distanced herself from comments published straight after her release.

Jill Carroll said she had been forced to make a "propaganda video" on her last night in captivity.

Speaking at a US base in Germany, Ms Carroll also said she did not speak freely in an Iraqi TV interview, which she was told would never be broadcast.

She called her captors "criminals, at best" saying she was often threatened.

In a statement read to the media by the editor of the Christian Science Monitor, Ms Carroll said she no longer stood by remarks she made on her release.

"During my last night in captivity, my captors forced me to participate in a propaganda video.

"They told me I would be released if I co-operated. I was living in a threatening environment, under their control, and wanted to go home alive. So I agreed."

...and...

In the interview, Ms Carroll had said her captors treated her "very well" and had not hit her.

In Germany, however, the freelance reporter was much more direct.

"The people who kidnapped me and murdered Alan Enwiya are criminals, at best," the statement read.

"They robbed Alan of his life and devastated his family. They put me, my family and my friends - and all those around the world, who have prayed so fervently for my release - through a horrific experience.

"I was, and remain, deeply angry with the people who did this."

Well. That expains the different between her the various videos released of her and the one where she was supposedly free in Iraq. Again, good on her for getting out alive.

The BBC story

April 24, 2006

Why eschatology matters in world affairs

As Iran does a diplomatic back and forth about nuclear power and Iranian influence in Iraq, Chuck Voller, as cited at Sic Semper Tyrannis, wants us to consider the possibility that president Ahmadinejad is trying to bring about the end of the world.

Lest this seem overly kooky to you, consider that, as cited by Voller, nearly a fifth of Americans expect the return of Jesus in their lifetimes (despite the Bayesian unlikeliness of this, given that the incidence of Jesus returning in the past 2,000 years is zero). Given our current president's predilection for thinking in messianic, good versus evil, terms, the possibility that the both sides are playing for the end times is an important consideration.

Mr. Voller's two big concerns are Iran poking Israel into a cataclysmic meltdown and Iran making a massive assault into Iraq, similar to the human wave attacks it carried out during the Iran-Iraq war.

May 05, 2006

The ambivalent acquaintance of my enemy is my ambivalent acquaintance

Russia may not be hot on sanctions against Iran, but they don't want to be friends, either:

The Russian foreign minister has said that Moscow has not decided whether Iran should be considered a threat, saying it will be guided by UN nuclear experts.

Sergei Lavrov was responding to remarks from Manouchehr Mottaki, his Iranian counterpart, that Russia and China "had officially told us ... [of] their opposition to sanctions and military attacks" against the Islamic Republic.

"We have made no such announcements. In such an important and serious area like nuclear non-proliferation, we can make a decision only based on the opinions of experts," Lavrov told reporters.

"The inspections that have been held in Iran do not allow us to conclude that Iran has the technology to create weapons of mass destruction. But, on the other hand, these inspections do not allow us to make the opposition conclusion."

As much as they want allies against American influence, Russia has to be thinking that it's only 1,500 miles from Tehran to Moscow, whereas it's about 6,000 miles from Iran to any part of the U.S.

The Al Jazeera story

May 08, 2006

The Sharks versus the Jets in Palestine

An attempted retribution kidnapping of a Fatah member by Hamas members led to a series of revenge kidnappings, a negotiated return of prisoners, then a resurgence of violence after the death of a Hamas member, culminating in an RPG attack on a Palestinian Authority vehicle:

Hamas and Fatah members battled with assault rifles and missiles on Monday, killing three fighters in the bloodiest internal strife since Hamas took power six weeks ago.

The confrontations began after midnight with a spate of kidnappings and peaked at daybreak when Hamas fired a shoulder-held missile into a Jeep with government licence plates, killing two Fatah gunmen who were also members of the security forces.

The fighting was the latest sign the two sides could be sliding towards large-scale clashes.

Or, perhaps, a sign that they already are clashing on a large scale.

It's not really surprising that a group whose mission statement requires the absolute destruction of another political entity would not deal well with a power competition on its home turf.

The Al Jazeera story

June 10, 2006

Mistaken identity in the West Bank

Brown University undergrad Benjamin Bight-Fishbein was temporarily kidnapped by Al-Aqsa gunmen in the West Bank this week. The kidnappers were going to hold him until Israel released all its Palestinian prisoners, until they discovered they'd grabbed an American, and gave him right back.

"In the end, I got the impression that they were in over their heads and they were going crazy talking on the phone. They clearly had no idea what they were doing," Mr Bight-Fishbein told the agency.

Palestinian security sources said an investigation had begun into who carried out the kidnapping.

Putting aside any concerns about the motivations behind unrealistic demands, it's fascinating and informative to see that a tremendous incident was avoided by dint of the kidnapee being an American rather than an Israeli. Instead of a round of Israeli vs Palestinian strikes and reprisals, we have members of the Palestinian security forces promising an investigation.

Sometimes, it's good for everyone if you're an American.

July 13, 2006

The free market of military power

As of the latest news, the IDF has cratered Beirut International Airport, several other military airports and has been shelling and bombing southern Lebanon. This has spurred complaints from France, Russia and (naturally) Lebanon, that the response from Israel is disproportionate to the inciting incident -- the kidnapping of two soldiers and the killing of several others by Hezbollah.

The BBC story
The Al Jazeera story
The CNN story
the IRIN story (focuses on the Red Cross in Lebanon)

Aside from the mild to serious hypocrisy of France and Russia calling a military response disproportionate, this July's breakout of insanity in and around Israel highlights the deep problems caused by ineffective nations.

[Lebanese Social Affairs Minister Naila Mouawad] told the BBC the government was not aware of the Hezbollah operation and did not support it, but this did not excuse Israel's actions.

"We think that the Israeli response is too hard ... on the people of Lebanon, who have been taken hostage," she said.

She said Lebanon was in a catastrophe, but the government was unable to disarm Hezbollah by force.

Whether a nation actively defends a group that is attacking another nation (e.g. the Taliban sheltering Al Qaeda) or is simply unable to curb it (Hezbollah in Lebanon), the end result for the threatened nation is exactly the same -- they cannot rely on normal, national channels to limit harm. If a nation does not hold a monopoly on military power within its borders, there is no reason to rely on it to resolve national security measures for you by proxy.

This situation is a catastrophe for Lebanon, and I do believe that the current government is simply unable to disarm Hezbollah (much as it couldn't kick Syrian forces out). This suggests that it is in the interest of everyone who wants a stable Middle East to not simply pass UN resolutions requiring disarmament, but to provide material assistance so that Lebanon can achieve a legitimate government with a local monopoly on military power.

August 11, 2006

Two out of three probably isn't good enough

France and the United States reached an agreement today on a draft UN resolution concerning a ceasefire in Lebanon. The draft will go to the full Security Council later today, ideally to be voted on today.

The latest compromise calls for a phased Israeli withdrawal as the Lebanese army moves into the south. At the same time, the UN Interim Force in Lebanon would be reinforced by up to 15,000 French and other troops.

As part of the deal, Hezbollah would pull out from south of the Litani River, 20km from the Israeli border.

That sounds wonderful, except for the part where Hezbollah leaves a 20km buffer zone for Israel. Has Hezbollah expressed any interest in a ceasefire? While voices within the Lebanese government itself have been screaming for a ceasefire from day one, Hezbollah has been content to label Israel "an occupying force" and pelt it with Katyushas. They've been fairly quiet on the issue of a ceasefire. Indeed, if they agreed to stop fighting now, that might come across as a failure to successfully defend against Israel. Though they could claim they'd driven the IDF out, the truth would be clear -- the international community begged it to leave.

With that in mind, it seems it would be rather more in Hezbollah's interests to keep striking at Israel, which in turn would make a ceasefire untenable for Israel. Under those circumstances, would France and other UN partners be willing to jam 15,000 troops like a wedge between the IDF, Hezbollah and the Lebanese army?

The al Jazeera story

...and, in case you've lost track:

Gaza-Egypt border shut down after three hours open

IDF strikes continue in Gaza (warning: images of dead people)

3 dead American soldiers in Iraq

1 dead NATO soldier in Afghanistan

Violence continues in Iraq...

...to the tune of 1,885 new residents of the Baghdad morgue in July

August 12, 2006

Conditional acceptance and war crimes

Yesterday, I was doubtful that Hezbollah would go along with the ceasefire. Today, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah spoke on this topic:

"We will not be an obstacle to any [government] decision that it finds appropriate, but our ministers will express reservations about articles [in the UN resolution] that we consider unjust and unfair," he said in a speech broadcast on Hezbollah's Al-Manar television.

But he called continued resistance to the Israeli offensive "our natural right" and predicted more intense fighting to come.

"The war has not yet ended," he said. "That can be seen on the ground where Israeli offensives are still ongoing.

"Hezbollah has the right to resist Israeli soldiers still in Lebanon, but will co-operate with Lebanese soldiers and UN troops due to be deployed to southern Lebanon as part of the Security Council resolution," he said.

So it appears that Nasrallah is saying, "We agree to the truce, except for the part about ceasing hostilities completely." He is also complaining about the text of the resolution, which contains this line:

Expressing its utmost concern at the continuing escalation of hostilities in Lebanon and in Israel since Hezbollah's attack on Israel on 12 July 2006, which has already caused hundreds of deaths and injuries on both sides, extensive damage to civilian infrastructure and hundreds of thousands of internally displaced persons;

As much as possible, Hezbollah would like to deny any responsibility for the current war. Many nations in the region are willing to go along with this idea, calling for an investigation into IDF human rights violations in Lebanon by the UN Human Rights Council.

Human rights commissioner Louise Arbour backed the probe, but earlier called for Hezbollah to also face an inquiry.

...and...

But Ms Arbour stressed that both sides had to be held to account for their actions during their conflict, which has so far lasted a month.

"Israeli attacks affecting civilians continue unabated," she said.

"Also unrelenting is Hezbollah's indiscriminate shelling of densely populated centres in northern Israel which has brought death and destruction."

Ms Arbour reminded the 47-member council that there had been repeated allegations of Hezbollah's systematic use of civilians as human shields.

In his book Fire, Sebastian Junger asks whether intentionally imbedding yourself in your own civilian population to maximize casualties and international outcry isn't, itself, a war crime. Just as Israel has made its own specious arguments ("We told them to leave the area") Hezbollah's claims of "defending" Lebanon are ridiculous. Their defensive strategy is to hide behind the people of Lebanon and dare Israel to take the shot.

August 17, 2006

Al-Hariri: Syria worse than Israel

The al Jazeera story

I'm not sure why this isn't receiving much coverage on the BBC and CNN. A quick trip over to Fox shows that, unsurprisingly, they are putting a link to this story on their World page (though more "human interest" coverage blankets their main page). In a speech Thursday, Saad al-Hariri, leader of the largest Lebanese parliamentary bloc and son of (murdered) former prime minister Rafiq al-Hariri, made a scathing criticism of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad:

Al-Hariri was responding to a speech on Tuesday by al-Assad in which he accused Lebanon's anti-Syrian groups of allying themselves with Israel, which bombarded Lebanon for 34 days.

Al-Assad had also accused the anti-Syrian bloc of wanting to sow discord in Lebanon by demanding that Hezbollah, the Syrian-backed Shia resistance group, disarm.

"Lebanon's wound [inflicted by Israel] is deep and painful, but today it has faced a deeper one from a friend [Syria]," he said.

...and...

"The Syrian people are like a support for Lebanon, but the Damascus regime is taking advantage of the Arab children's blood in Qana, Gaza and Baghdad to cause strife in Lebanon, Palestine and Iraq.

After all, Israel spent about 18 years in some way in Lebanon; Syria was there for 29...

August 18, 2006

The politics of past and present, and a plan that's failed in advance

The construction of an expanded UN force to police the area of Southern Lebanon is running into a number of difficulties that relate to UN policies, contemporary politics and more than a bit of history.

France, the core of the current UNFIL group, refuses to do more than modestly increase its presence until new groundrules are laid out. While I'd like to see a solid European presence there, I think this is a reasonable position to take -- after all, they don't yet know if they'd be committing troops to try and prevent conflict, or if they're going to be forced to go garage-to-garage hunting Katyushas. I think the latter is unlikely, but I wouldn't want to be stuck with the job.

Italy, on the other hand, may be jockeying for a stronger international role by committing 3,000 troops in advance of knowing the mission parameters:

Arturo Parisi, the defence minister, said in a written statement for parliament that "eventually our country could assume the responsibility of leading the operation", though Prodi has not yet talked of Italy taking command.

Malaysia and Indonesia have both volunteered substantial troop outlays, but Israel has reasonably complained that it's unreasonable to have peacekeeping operations carried out by military forces from nations that don't acknowledge its existence. After all, if you don't acknowledge Israel as a country, does that make IDF soldiers armed extranational forces occupying a non-territory, to be arrested freely? That's an extreme interpretation, of course, but there's no reason to let that foot in the door.

Germany would like to help, but not on the ground in Southern Lebanon. As al Jazeera points out, Germany wants to avoid any possibility that its troops will ever end up fighting against Israelis.

At the end of the day, regardless of who goes, the force will mainly prevent another large-scale IDF action across the border. It is not going to successfully disarm Hezbollah.

In the words of Deputy Secretary General Mark Malloch Brown:

"It's not going to go in there and attempt large-scale disarmament. Rather it is going to police the political agreement which triggers disarmament called for under the resolution," he said.

Use of force would be "prudent" and only exercised if combatants forcefully resisted a demand to disarm, Mr Malloch Brown said.

In other words, there will be no enforcement of disarmament. Hezbollah will store its remaining thousands of weapons, import more, and wait for another opportunity.

The al Jazeera story

The BBC story

The CNN story

Think of it as the Persian take on American money

As reported by Reuters and others, Hezbollah is funding residents of destroyed areas in Lebanon to help them rebuild their homes -- to the tune of $12,000 in (American) cash, each.

From Reuters:

Hizbollah has not said where the funds are coming from to compensate people for an estimated 15,000 destroyed homes. The scheme appears likely to cost at least $150 million. The Lebanese government has yet to launch anything similar.

So where's the money coming from? If you said Iran, you're right. A Fox article adds this useful tidbit:

...Hezbollah on Friday started handing out crisp one hundred dollar bills to residents who lost their homes in the Israeli bombing campaign...

Only three players can generate large volumes of hundred dollar bills -- the United States, North Korea, and Iran. It's not just a matter of convenience that Hezbollah chose to use a large-denomination American bill to buy its postwar popularity.

October 26, 2006

Tunisia and the U.S., together at last

During the 2003 invasion of Iraq, Donald Rumsfeld made the then-questionable, and in light of his later behavior, ridiculous, claim that Al Jazeera was helping to violate the Geneva Conventions by airing images of dead or captive American soldiers. We later struck the al Jazeera transmitting station in Baghdad, also probably a questionable move.

As it happens, Tunisia now shares Rumsfeld's outrage.

The government of Tunisia closed its embassy in Doha, Qatar (al Jazeera's home office is in Qatar; it was also started with a grant from the Qatari government). They're protesting the airing of an interview with Moncef Marzouki, an opposition activist living in Paris who is calling for civil resistance against the government of Tunisia.

Of course, the reasoning is different here. This time, al Jazeera's in trouble for airing a call for civil protest by a human rights activist who wants change in a predominantly Arab, Islamic nation.

Which seems, all in all, like the kind of thing we'd want to support, and might expect to see on al Hurra.

December 04, 2006

"Just say no" in Arabic

Showing today (and then over and over again this week) on al Hurra, the American Arabic-language news station:

Messing With Heads

Think smoking pot is a harmless pastime? Think again. According to the latest scientific research, it can cause psychosis, schizophrenia, depression and anxiety disorders. And worryingly, teenagers - the people who indulge most – are those most at risk. In this eye opening documentary, young users now being treated for psychosis speak candidly about their experiences.

Good grief. Why are we wasting our air time trying to propagate American anti-drug culture into the Arab world? Is it all a clever ploy to convince radical Islamists that we, too, are a bunch of controlling fundamentalists?

Actually, I'd feel a lot of respect for the producers at al Hurra if that's the goal, as it's one area where official American national policy coincides well with radical Islamist beliefs.

If you're curious and speak Arabic (or just want to watch video in a language you don't understand), some of the programs produced by al Hurra can be downloaded from their website.

Added note: Unsurprisingly, the drug problem in Iraq is not centered on pot. Of all the things one might produce in-country or smuggle across the borders, pot would probably be the most difficult (that said, people are doing it). Instead, most of the abused drugs are either pills or non-pharmaceutical solvents (e.g. sniffing glue). I would think that the dangers of sniffing glue -- which definitely will cause brain damage -- would be good to publicize on al Hurra.

IRIN article
BBC article

I just emailed al Hurra to ask them about their choice of coverage in this case.

January 22, 2007

Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri disagrees

85-year-old dissident religious leader Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri made a fairly direct criticism of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the current Iranian executive this week. He says that although nuclear energy is Iran's right, Ahmadinejad is going about it the wrong way, using belligerence rather than negotiations. In addition, he has complained about resource mismanagement, an unwillingness to admit that Iran suffers from inflation, and money spent aiding outside groups (unnamed, but one presumes Hamas and Hezbollah) rather than within Iran. In his words:

"Some countries don't have oil and gas. Yet, they run their country and stand on their own," he said, according to a copy of his words seen by AP.

"We have so much oil and gas but make useless expenditures work for others and don't think of our own people's problems and the price of basic commodities goes higher and higher every day."

He complained that people kept on shouting slogans about nuclear rights, but he asked: "Don't we have other rights too?"

It's good to recall that there are many like Montazeri, when one is tempted to paint all of Iran with the brush of radical foolishness. As we well know, the dangerous person in charge does not necessarily represent the will, ethics, morality, or value of the people.

BBC article

January 23, 2007

Bring on the pragmatic restraint

It's not just Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri rebuking Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, it seems. This week, past Iranian president Hashemi Rafsanjani criticized Ahmadinejad's economic policy, and apparently Iranian newspapers are printing critical editorials about his economic practices and his bellicose international stance. As this BBC article points out, this almost certainly means that those otherwise in power in Iran are starting to think of Ahmadinejad as a liability. They may not want him out of power, but they certainly want him to behave.

Again, the parallels with our executive are clear, even if "those in power" has a different meaning in the States than it does in Iran.

January 29, 2007

They obviously just clicked "okay" on the EULA without reading it

A State Department report on Israel's use of U.S.-supplied cluster munitions in Lebanon indicates that "terms agreed with Israel for the use of US-supplied munitions were "likely" to have been violated."

Perhaps State can remind the rest of us that Israel's self-perceived best interest is not guided at all by what is in America's interest. The only way to guarantee that weapons are used according to our agreements is to refuse to provide those weapons when the agreements are violated. No one should get an out on something that can cause us so many problems.

BBC article

"There are friendly nations, but no friendly intelligence agencies" should be amended to include "or militaries, either."

January 30, 2007

These two things are probably related

What do you do if you're Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah and al Jazeera has started running pieces about how the Arab world has lost faith in Hezbollah following gloating television coverage of Saddam Hussein's execution and divisive political tactics used within Lebanon?

Blame someone else, naturally.

Nasrallah pulls a play out of Bush's playbook and badly misdirects blame for a war of choice:

"The one who fomented chaos in Lebanon, who destroyed Lebanon, who killed women and children, old and young in Lebanon, is George Bush and [Secretary of State] Condoleezza Rice, who ordered the Zionists to launch the war on Lebanon," he said.

Of course, as that particular BBC article points out:

Hezbollah and Israel fought a fierce 34-day conflict in July and August, after Hezbollah killed and captured several Israeli soldiers.

Do they suppose Israel needed to be told to go to war, after that?

The laughable part comes next, though, when he claims that Bush is:

"...trying to defeat resistance movements in Lebanon, Palestine and Iraq by starting civil wars".

See? The massive sectarian violence in Iraq isn't a bug of bad American policy, it's a feature.

All politics is local politics.

February 11, 2007

Pull out of Iraq to achieve your goals

In his editorial piece Victory is Not an Option, retired Lt. General William Odon gives a sober, cogent overview of the failings of current policy and offers an alternative plan.

For the record, that's one more plan offered as an alternative to the President's warplan.

The first and most critical step is to recognize that fighting on now simply prolongs our losses and blocks the way to a new strategy. Getting out of Iraq is the pre-condition for creating new strategic options. Withdrawal will take away the conditions that allow our enemies in the region to enjoy our pain. It will awaken those European states reluctant to collaborate with us in Iraq and the region.

Second, we must recognize that the United States alone cannot stabilize the Middle East.

Third, we must acknowledge that most of our policies are actually destabilizing the region. Spreading democracy, using sticks to try to prevent nuclear proliferation, threatening "regime change," using the hysterical rhetoric of the "global war on terrorism" -- all undermine the stability we so desperately need in the Middle East.

Fourth, we must redefine our purpose. It must be a stable region, not primarily a democratic Iraq. We must redirect our military operations so they enhance rather than undermine stability. We can write off the war as a "tactical draw" and make "regional stability" our measure of "victory." That single step would dramatically realign the opposing forces in the region, where most states want stability. Even many in the angry mobs of young Arabs shouting profanities against the United States want predictable order, albeit on better social and economic terms than they now have.

The full essay is in the extended as I don't know if the Washington Post will keep the link live, but I recommend clicking here to read it on their site, as it crosslinks to other good content, such as a breakdown of the recent National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq.

Continue reading "Pull out of Iraq to achieve your goals" »

February 14, 2007

Roadside bombs and sectarian violence all 'round

A bus carrying Iranian Revolutionary Guards was hit by a car bomb in southeastern Iran, killing eleven. The attack has been claimed by Jundallah, a Baluch Sunni group native to the area. The Iranian government claims that Jundallah are a bunch of rebels and drug runners, possibly with American and British support. After a similar claim was made in the Guardian, Jundalllah issued their own statement in response:

We do not have any sort of ties with the Talebans. As Moslems, we share Islam with all Moslems with moderate views. We believe in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and all other conventions of United Nations. We believe in freedom of speech and freedom of association. We also believe in self-defence as it has been recognised by many United Nations conventions. The right to self-defence has been also recognised in almost all countries and all cultures.

The Islamic Republic of Iran has systematically tried to eliminate our religious and national identity. We, the Baluch as Sunnis, have a right to preserve our identity, our culture, our religion, our land and our dignity. Our campaign against the regime in Iran is the campaign of a national entity and identity whose survival is under serious threat. The world has lost many civilisations, tribes, ethnic groups, religious groups, cultures and languages. Baluchi identity, culture, language and values have contributed enormously to the world's civilization. It will be a pity if this noble race and identity is eliminated by a regime that is well-known for its international terrorist activities. We do not want to have the fate of the civilisations that are extinct.

We are striving and campaigning to preserve our human dignity, human rights, national identity and religious beliefs.

There's more if you follow the link, including a denial of involvement in the drug trade.

al Jazeera article
CNN article

March 21, 2007

Cost-benefit analyses

I check into, but do not really listen to, KPFA, for much the same reason I only check in with Fox. Reporting with bias I can deal with, but in listening to either, you have to work around chains of buzzwords that the speakers can't help but choke out every time they mention a topic.

That said, there's more value to be found in KPFA than in Fox, by far.

The KPFA program Flashpoints featured a story yesterday about a policy of strip-searching at checkpoints in Israel and the Palestinian territories, with an emphasis on this having been done to children. While I was doing some follow-up reading at If Americans Knew -- the site of the those who compiled that report -- I found an article they'd included that made an interesting point. The problematic yield of American support for Israel is not just a matter of antagonizing Arab nations. It's also a matter of funding industries that compete directly with ours, including arms sales to countries we won't deal with (and given our own armament promiscuity, that may be saying a lot).

In general, this entire line of thinking highlights the lack of good cost-benefit analysis for everyone involved. The checkpointing policies described in the report aren't particularly helpful, and, like many semi-punitive measures, may tend to generate enemies rather than control them. Similarly, we aren't doing a good evaluation of our role vis-a-vis Israel. A friend suggested that our policy would be sounder if we cut our military aid to Israel and replaced it witha promise that we would not fall to an attack from outside. If we then went on to spread some of that money around the area, that would help reduce key pressures that lead to violence, such as poverty and lack of hope. And that, in the end, would even help Israel.

March 27, 2007

"Reform" in Egypt

A series of constitutional changes that will make it easier to exclude religious groups from government and that include a number of "anti-terrorism" measures were voted into effect in Egypt this week in what was, by almost all accounts, a tremendously shady voting process.

The Egyptian justice ministry placed the turnout at an already low 27.1%, but conflicting observations from various NGOs put the actual turnout at 3-9%. Rights-oriented groups were not happy with the outcome:

Amnesty International describes the changes as the greatest erosion of human rights in 26 years.

Human Rights Watch said the amendments "effectively remove basic protections against violations of Egyptians' rights to privacy, individual freedom, security of person and home and due process"

To clarify just how shady the actual voting was, consider the following:

Ayman Mohyeldin, an Al Jazeera correspondent, said he spoke to voters who did not understand why they were voting and even found people who voted though they were ineligible to vote.

Mohyeldin also said government employees were taken en masse by buses to polling stations.

Amal Oweid, an Egyptian he spoke with, said: "I am here to vote for Hosni Mubarak ... I am here to vote for him as president."

She did not know how to read or write and did not know what was on the ballot.

Oweid said: "A guy came with me and he said mark here and I marked on the green circle ... I didn't know what the ballot said."

Mohyeldin reported that he was able to cast a ballot without providing appropriate Egyptian identification.

He said: "I came to the polling station [and] presented a press ID issued by the ministry of information that clearly stated that I am an American citizen working for Al Jazeera.

"I was handed a ballot and allowed to vote. At no time did I mislead authorities about my nationality or my identity."

There is no guarantee that the ballot will be tallied but the incident highlights major loopholes in the voting system, Mohyeldin said.

al Jazeera article

April 02, 2007

Smart

And I mean that seriously. In this article, al Jazeera repeats part of one of the coerced "confessions" given by British military personnel in Iranian custody. The Iranian government statement is as follows:

"All evidence, including the GPS carried by the British military and also the frank confessions of all 15 British personnel shows that they have entered Iran's territorial waters without permission," Iranian state television said earlier on Monday.

However, listen to what Captain Chris Air actually says, even though he's stuck in unfriendly custody and is doubtless subject to substantial off-screen coercion:

Captain Chris Air, one of the 15 naval service personnel, was shown saying: "At about 10 o'clock in the morning, we were seized, apparently at this point here, from their maps, from the GPS they've shown us, which is inside Iranian territorial waters.

"...from their maps, from the GPS they've shown us..."

That's not an admission, even if the Iranian executive wishes it were. Smart.

April 06, 2007

No surprise at all

The British sailors and marines recently released from Iranian custody wasted very little time at all in recanting anything said under duress and confirming that they were, indeed, not in Iranian waters when they were seized:

"We were equipped with Xeres true navigational equipment and hand held GPS for backup. The helicopter in support provided continuous navigational confirmation and we were also linked to HMS Cornwall who were monitoring our exact position at all times. Let me make it absolutely clear, irrespective of what has been said in the past, when we were detained by the IRG we were inside internationally recognized Iraqi territorial waters and I can clearly state we were 1.7 nautical miles from Iranian waters."

Also:

"We were interrogated most nights, and presented with two options. If we admitted we had strayed, we would be on a plane back to the UK soon. If we didn't we faced up to seven years in prison. We all at one time or another made a conscious decision to make a controlled release of non-operational information.

And:

"When taken by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard we were well inside Iraqi territorial waters.

"The detention was clearly illegal and not a pleasant experience.

"We as a group held out for as long as we though appropriate. We then complied up to a point with our captors.

"We remain immensely proud of our team. Their courage and dignity throughout their illegal detention was in line with the best tradition of the service.

These quotes were taken from a statement read by Lieutenant Felix Carman and Royal Marine Captain Chris Air, as displayed on the CNN site.

Even as he was being held in isolation, Captain Air did a great job of indicating that the official Iranian claims were false.

CNN article
al Jazeera article
BBC article

May 08, 2007

With Iran as everywhere else, mismatches abound

The BBC's radio news roundup is reporting today that the Iranian government is considering easing off on its gas subsidies and limiting buyers to four liters of gas a day. Translating that into American, that's a gallon of gas a day. The Iranian government faces the basic problem that although Iran is awash in crude oil, it has comparatively little refining capacity. As a consequence, most of its refined gas is imported and subsidized to keep the price down -- the report cited a price of about 18 cents a liter, or 72 cents a gallon.

Actually imposing these limits, and raising gas prices, would both be spectacularly unpopular moves. So unpopular, in fact, that it's been nearly a year since anyone suggested such a move, and it still hasn't been done. There are real worries that if something isn't done, however, the damage to the Iranian economy could be profound.

(...and, in a quirky twist on the 1970s, the BBC reporter points out that western nations could actually put in place a gasoline embargo against Iran, perhaps as a means of punishing them for continuing their nuclear program.)

In a wholly different category of mismatch, the UAE has seized twelve Iranian divers, accusing them of violating UAE territorial waters. This is just another episode in a long-running dispute between the two countries over owneship of several islands in the gulf. These islands, comprising Lesser Tunb, Greater Tunb, and Abu Musa, were abandoned by Britain in 1971, seized by Iran, and claimed by the UAE.

All of this comes just ahead of Iranian president Ahmadinejad's visit to the UAE.

Finally, the Iranian parliament has banned al Jazeera from entering, pending a formal apology to Iraqi Shia leader Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. al Jazeera's crime occurred when one of its show hosts questioned the legitimacy of al-Sistani's rule, which apparently was "...a plot of the enemies of Islam and Iraq and news networks like Al Jazeera committed this insult because of their influential role."

So even al Jazeera can't catch a break. Darned liberal media.

May 25, 2007

The Voice of Bush's America

You may have missed this, but the Washington Post has recently covered the fact that our tax-dollar funded, theoretically American-propaganda-oriented Arabic-language news station, Al Hurra, has been broadcasting all sorts of fundamentalist rantings and ravings.

From Joel Mowbray's opinion piece in the Post:

Al-Hurra was intended to cut through the anti-West and anti-U.S. propaganda that permeates even mainstream Arab media. Stories in that vein no longer see significant airtime, and nowhere is this more apparent than Al-Hurra's new approach to the Holocaust--the treatment of which in Arab society embodies so much that is wrong in that critical region of the Muslim world.

It is precisely because of Arab society's persistent refusal to accept the existence of such a defining--and indisputable--event in modern history that Al-Hurra dared to do things Al-Jazeera would never fathom, such as interviewing Holocaust survivor Elie Wiesel and airing the 60th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz. But that was under Mr. Register's predecessor, a Lebanese-born Muslim named Mouafac Harb.

Under Mr. Register, Al-Hurra covered the Holocaust denial conference in Tehran last December. But in a stark break from Mr. Harb's era, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the attendees at his conference were treated with unmistakable deference.

Al-Hurra's Dec. 12 report on the gathering included David Duke's praise for Mr. Ahmadinejad, and it took at face value the organizers' demand for Israel "to provide proof and evidence that certifies the occurrence" of the Holocaust. An official running the event was afforded the opportunity to show the open-mindedness of Holocaust deniers: "If we actually conclude with our experts through this meeting that the Holocaust is a real incident we will at that time admit its presence." (Transcript provided by a fluent Arabic-speaking U.S. government employee.)

Also broadcast unchallenged were the remarks of the infamous French Holocaust denier Robert Faurisson, who informed Arab viewers: "Gas chambers and mass killings of the Jews, in the way that it is pretended (by the Jews), is completely untrue, and an historical lie."

Al Hurra also broadcast all of an hour-long speech by Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah. Yes, that's the Hezbollah that we've classed as a terrorist group.

Should it seem peculiar that new Al Hurra programming director Larry Register would do such a thing, consider the fact that he speaks no Arabic. In fact, most of the upper echelon folks currently overseeing the channel speak no Arabic. This may be quirky of me, but I think if I were in any way responsible for a broadcast station meant to foster good public relations with a hugely critical part of the world, I'd bust my ass trying to learn the language.

Mowbray closes his editorial with this message:

But that's not enough. The people who already monitor the network--its employees--need to be empowered to report dubious decisions without fear of reprisal. Transparency will allow concerns to be investigated swiftly. Employees simply won't come forward, though, if they believe no one in power cares. For that reason, a clear signal must be sent by firing Mr. Register.

After all, if you can't get fired for using U.S. taxpayer dollars to provide a platform for Islamic terrorists and help further Holocaust denial, then wouldn't Congress and the Bush administration be communicating that pretty much anything goes?

I agree. Write a letter to the fool we have in the executive now, as well as your Senators and Representative. The trickle-down pattern of rank incompetence costs us money and lives, and now it's promoting radical terrorism on our dime.

The full opinion piece
Another opinion piece, reprinted on Representative Steve Rothman's site

A template for writing about Al Hurra

Here's a template, if you'd like to write to the President and your Senators and Rep about the travesty of Al Hurra promoting terrorist messages using your money.

[Politician's name] -

I am writing to express my deep dismay at the fact that Alhurra, a news station funded by American taxpayers, has been broadcasting extremist messages by known terrorist leaders. This negligence and disregard for the safety of the many American soldiers and civilians working in the Middle East is intolerable, and must be stopped immediately. Programming director Larry Register must be fired, to be replaced by someone who understands the driving purpose of Alhurra, and who also has the basic competence to speak the language the station broadcasts in. Alhurra itself must also be completely reviewed, especially the levels of upper management. This includes the Broadcasting Board of Governors, who have been derelict in their duty as the true directors of Alhurra.

We need quick, decisive action on this topic before any American lives are lost as a result of continued incompetence.

[My name]

June 14, 2007

An American perspective on Gaza

In case you missed it, Gaza has gone to hell recently. President Mahmoud Abbas has sacked the Hamas-led government by declaration, but they're having none of it, given that they've routed the Fatah security wing and overtaken the Palestinian Authority's official buildings.

For an American perspective, al Jazeera turned to Shelly Smith, a 42-year-old high school teacher who lives and works in Gaza. Her account is grim:

Our neighbour Waseem Arafat had gone to the Shifa hospital in Beit Hanoun to visit someone and when he came out a gunman shot him four times in the head.

June 15, 2007

Taking a cue from Iran

Shortly after Ronald Reagan came into office, Iran released the sixty-six hostages it had held for over a year.

Hamas is now following Iran's example, trying to mark a political shift with a hostage release. According to a Hamas spokesman, they're calling for the release of BBC journalist Alan Johnston.

This is a clear sympathy play by Hamas, who've spent much of the last week killing random civilians as they pushed Fatah out of power. Doubtless, they do have the power to lean on Alan Johnston's kidnappers, the self-styled "Army of Islam". They almost certainly had that power two weeks ago, too -- but they didn't need to make up for deaths and mass destruction two weeks ago.

June 18, 2007

No longer a simple gesture

On effectively taking power in Gaza last week, Hamas promised to free kidnapped BBC journalist Alan Johnston, in a face-saving gesture of goodwill from a group that was, until recently, shooting random bystanders in the head during their fight with rival group Fatah.

Johnston's kidnappers, a day club referring to themselves with no sense of irony as the "Army of Islam," issued a quick declaration that they were, under no circumstances, handing Mr. Johnston over.

Hamas has now indicated that if the handover doesn't happen soon, they're going to free Johnston by force. The "Army" replied that it will kill Mr. Johnston if this happens. Their own set of demands revolves around Abu Qatada, who is currently facing deportation from the UK on the grounds that he's a terrorist. Of course, given their declarations about how killing Mr. Johnston will bring them "closer to God", it's clear what their real motivation is.

Hopefully, Mr. Johnston will emerge safely from the care of this cadre of losers, regardless of what happens with Hamas or anyone else.

June 27, 2007

One fuel tank away from a riot

As I discussed in May, the government of Iran has spent the last year trying to figure out how to solve its gas problem. Despite its large oil reserves, Iran has very little refining capacity, and thus is forced to import gasoline. For years, the government has been subsidizing these imports, keeping the prices very low and doing great harm to the national treasury. Since sometime in 2006, they've been thinking of easing off on these subsidies while simultaneously putting in place a gas purchasing cap.

This week, they enacted a cap.

It did not go well.

With less than two hours notice, the government or Iran announced to its citizens that they are now limited to 100 liters of fuel (26 gallons) per month.

Riots broke out soon after, and twelve gas stations were torched in Tehran.

"Guns, fireworks, tanks, [President] Ahmadinejad should be killed," chanted angry youths, throwing stones at police.

Some Iranian members of parliament are calling for a relaxation on the cap, citing the improbably short notice the government gave. The government of Iran is, in turn, presumed to be trying to cut down on its fuel imports before someone (like, say, the US) decides to cut off the gas supply by way of applying pressure against Iran about its nuclear program, interference in Iraq, funding of Hezbollah, or anything else that strikes their fancy.

BBC article

July 04, 2007

Alan Johnston free

As reported in this BBC article, BBC reporter Alan Johnston was freed today. Mr. Johnston was kidnapped about four months ago during his regular press work in Gaza. His kidnapping sparked more than the usual round of outrage, as his was seen as a fair voice that could publicize Palestinian needs and concerns to the world at large. After months in captivity, things sped up considerably when Hamas forcibly took control of Gaza and promised they'd secure his freedom. Despite initial threats to kill Mr. Johnston should Hamas try a rescue, the self-styled "Army of Islam" finally gave in and released him and a number of other captives, unharmed.

The BBC has a timeline of the process, which began on the third of July when Hamas flooded the Sabra district of Gaza, where Johnston was being held, with gunmen. The BBC and other sources describe Hamas's negotiation process in fairly vague terms, but I would not be surprised if the leverage they used on the "Army" involved some manner of threats not just to its members, but to their families.

The final words, from Mr. Johnston:

Johnston praised Hamas for winning his freedom. "If it hadn't been for that real serious Hamas pressure, that commitment to tidying up Gaza's many, many security problems, then I might have been in that room for a lot longer," he told the news conference later during the day.

Asked if he would return to Gaza, Johnston said: "After many months of kidnapping, I think I need a break."

July 07, 2007

Change, just like that

One of the "upshots" of a totalitarian government is the ability make radical policy changes very quickly. This may occasionally result in the violent overthrow of your government, but that's the risk you generally take when the options are "violent overthrow" or "business as usual." One imagines elections let off some of this pressure.

Last week, the government of Iran announced sharp fuel rationing, resulting in much public complaint and a number of riots.

This week, the government of Iran announced that within two weeks they'll stop making gasoline-only cars, instead switching over to dual-fuel vehicles that can run on both gasoline and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). This is so obviously an unworkable schedule, it's hard to see why "two weeks" was chosen, rather than a realistic-sounding time frame.

"The automobiles which have been supplied to the market prior to this will gradually be converted to dual fuel too," Mr Tahmasebi added.

Last year, some 1,150,000 vehicles were manufactured in Iran.

The BBC's Jon Leyne in Tehran says the move will reduce demand for petrol and could help ease the capital's notorious pollution.

But it is not clear the infrastructure is in place yet, either to produce enough gas or to provide enough filling stations, our correspondent says.

Notice how that's over a million vehicles manufactured last year alone? There are a lot of vehicles needing conversion, not to mention the need to rebuild fueling centers, and so forth.

The thing to watch in the coming months is whether this gradually transitions into a realistic policy, or joins the ranks of many other totalitarian train wrecks of days past.

BBC article

July 16, 2007

Sixteen more from Gitmo to Saudia Arabia

Sixteen Saudia national were transferred from the holding facility at Guantanamo Bay to Saudi Arabian custody this week, following a review process at Gitmo. They follow in the footsteps of sixty-one other Saudis who were previously released from American custody. According to Saudi officials, most of the prisoners who were previously transferred from our custody were subsequently released by the Saudis.

al Jazeera article

August 20, 2007

There's honestly no such thing as a friendly intelligence agency

The government of Iran just released from custody two Chinese nationals who were arrested for taking pictures of a military complex in the town of Arak.

The Chinese foreign ministry said: "In early July, two people from Chinese companies mistakenly took some pictures of some sensitive buildings when they were helping local owners to conduct field measurements in Iran.

"They were detained by Iranian police and now they have been freed. The foreign ministry and Chinese embassy in Iran have warned Chinese citizens in Iran to behave so as to prevent misunderstandings."

Indeed. It's always good to prevent these misunderstandings.

BBC article

September 12, 2007

The free market of air defenses

A little shy of a week ago, a group of Israeli jets apparently transited across Syria, possibly hitting a target in northern Syria before exiting across the Turkish border and heading home.

The Syrian authorities are livid. They say that the aircraft were driven off but that they fired their weaponry into a deserted area.

Outstanding theories about what the Israelis would have hit range from the reasonable (a Hezbollah arms factory) to the less credible (a stash of nuclear weapons program material being held for North Korea). Notably, the Israeli government apparently told the Syrian government it was scaling back Israeli forces in the Golan just ahead of the action, possibly to signal that the impending strike wasn't a prelude to war.

The clearest upshot of the entire incident, for now, is that American-made aircraft still beat Russian-made air defenses. Caveat emptor.

BBC article

December 04, 2007

Notes from the NIE

If you've been following the news, you should have heard that a recent National Intelligence Estimate says that Iran dropped its nuclear weapons program in 2003. George Bush has countered by claiming that this recent NIE is a "warning signal" -- rather than, say, seeing the positives that apparently international pressure can put a nation of nuclear arms.

You can download and read the public version of the NIE by clicking here. Here's the relevant section heading bits:

A. We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program; we also assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons. We judge with high confidence that the halt, and Tehran’s announcement of its decision to suspend its declared uranium enrichment program and sign an Additional Protocol to its Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Safeguards Agreement, was directed primarily in response to increasing international scrutiny and pressure resulting from exposure of Iran’s previously undeclared nuclear work.

B. We continue to assess with low confidence that Iran probably has imported at least some weapons-usable fissile material, but still judge with moderate-to-high confidence it has not obtained enough for a nuclear weapon. We cannot rule out that Iran has acquired from abroad—or will acquire in the future—a nuclear weapon or enough fissile material for a weapon. Barring such acquisitions, if Iran wants to have nuclear weapons it would need to produce sufficient amounts of fissile material indigenously—which we judge with high confidence it has not yet done.

C. We assess centrifuge enrichment is how Iran probably could first produce enough fissile material for a weapon, if it decides to do so. Iran resumed its declared centrifuge enrichment activities in January 2006, despite the continued halt in the nuclear weapons program. Iran made significant progress in 2007 installing centrifuges at Natanz, but we judge with moderate confidence it still faces significant technical problems operating
them.

D. Iranian entities are continuing to develop a range of technical capabilities that could be applied to producing nuclear weapons, if a decision is made to do so. For example, Iran’s civilian uranium enrichment program is continuing. We also assess with high confidence that since fall 2003, Iran has been conducting research and development projects with commercial and conventional military applications—some of which would
also be of limited use for nuclear weapons.

E. We do not have sufficient intelligence to judge confidently whether Tehran is willing to maintain the halt of its nuclear weapons program indefinitely while it weighs its options, or whether it will or already has set specific deadlines or criteria that will prompt it to restart the program.

F. We assess with moderate confidence that Iran probably would use covert facilities—rather than its declared nuclear sites—for the production of highly enriched uranium for a weapon. A growing amount of intelligence indicates Iran was engaged in covert uranium conversion and uranium enrichment activity, but we judge that these efforts probably were halted in response to the fall 2003 halt, and that these efforts probably had not been
restarted through at least mid-2007.

G. We judge with high confidence that Iran will not be technically capable of producing and reprocessing enough plutonium for a weapon before about 2015.

H. We assess with high confidence that Iran has the scientific, technical and industrial capacity eventually to produce nuclear weapons if it decides to do so.

Notably, this public version of the NIE was (naturally) not released at the request of George Bush. You can click here to read Dr. Donald Kerr's statement about why they released the information. Here's the punchline, in his words:

The decision to release an unclassified version of the Key Judgments of this NIE was made when it was determined that doing so was in the interest of our nation’s security. The Intelligence Community is on the record publicly with numerous statements based on our 2005 assessment on Iran. Since our understanding of Iran’s capabilities has changed, we felt it was important to release this information to ensure that an accurate presentation is available. While the decision to release the declassified Key Judgments was coordinated in discussion with senior policy makers, the IC took responsibility for what portions of the NIE Key Judgments were to be declassified.

"...we felt it was important to release this information to ensure that an accurate presentation is available."

"...doing so was in the interest of our nation's security."

The office of the DNI is, perhaps, not as compliant as George Tenet was.

February 03, 2008

Iran roundup - gas, atoms, executions, and apostasy

This has been a busy week for Iran in the news. Let's take a look.

In a typically ranting speech of the kind that may soon get him censured by the actual power in Iran, President Ahmadinejad has suggested that Iran is approaching the "summit of our nuclear path." In more material terms, Russia recently finished delivering nuclear fuel for Iran's first nuclear power station.

As I talked about last June, Iran faces a fundamental fuel issue that won't be solved by nuclear power -- gasoline. Although Iran is an oil exporter, it lacks refining capacity and has been hemorrhaging away its oil profits in the form of gasoline subsidies to keep fuel prices low inside the country. Last year's attempts to fix this situation by limiting fuel use went poorly. It's unclear to what extent nuclear power will lift this kind of cost pressure, but it's possible that the discovery of a massive gas field off the coast may help by providing even more capital to pay for all that fuel. However, as the article notes:

Iran has the world's second-largest proven gas reserves after Russia and it has ambitions to export gas to a host of countries including Armenia, Pakistan and Syria.

However, it has failed to become a major international exporter because of a lack of foreign investment and slow progress in exploiting its fields.

Despite its export plans, Iran had recently been forced to import gas from neighbouring Turkmenistan because of high domestic consumption.

Switching from resource management to social management, government spokesman Ali Reza Jamshidi announced the arrest of fifty-four members of the prohibited Bahai faith. The officially allowed faiths in Iran are Islam, Christianity, Judaism, and Zoroastrianism. Zoroastrianism was presumably grandfathered in, as it precedes Islam in the area, and Judaism and Christianity get the special "religions of the book" exception. Bahai is in the unfortunate position of suggesting that it's a later (and better) successor to all these other faiths (you can read more about Bahai at the official website). Fifty-one of the convicts were given suspended sentences, provided they take "courses by state propaganda officials."

In the same press conference, Jamshidi indicated that a customs official was recently executed for corruption and bribery, while admitting that, yes, they don't usually execute people for corruption. On that note, Ayatollah Mahmoud Hashemi Shahrudi ordered a limitation on public executions, and publication of execution photos.

Correspondents say it appears Ayatollah Shahrudi wants to lower the profile of executions as Iran has been widely criticised by Western countries and international organisations.

Iran has executed at least 28 convicts so far this year, according to media reports.

Capital offences in Iran include murder, rape, armed robbery, serious drug trafficking, apostasy, adultery and male homosexuality.

Good to know.

February 27, 2008

Reciprocal collective punishment all 'round

Israeli helicopters continue missile attacks within the Gaza strip even as Hamas launches the occasional missile over t