Hope is not a plan

This is the tenth night of general rioting in France, with the BBC reporting 900 cars burned in this story, though their banner update cites the higher number of 1,300. Violence has spread to central Paris, Toulouse and Nantes. Al Jazeera is reporting on this as well.

Tim and I were discussing this yesterday. This violence appears to be a direct consequence of failure to integrate, or care about integrating, people into society in a meaningful way. There are people in the United States who believe they can force integration by mandating English as the only language and other "cultural laundering" procedures. Far better, I think, to take the route that has been demonstrated to be effective in our first two centuries and integrate people by adapting to include their culture.

The San Jose area features Spanish-language adds for Korean-brand instant noodles. This is what we want, not mandating that people abandon their roots. In time, all roots grow together anyway.

A trial that's going on right now in Istanbul is fairly emblematic of problems Turkey faces in trying for EU membership. Turkish author Orhan Pamuk is charged with "insulting Turkishness" after stating in a magazine interview that the Ottoman empire was responsible for the death of thirty thousand Kurds and a million Armenians in Turkey.

This goes directly to the long-standing argument over whether there was or was not an Armenian genocide in Turkey in 1915; the Turkish government has never admitted that any genocide occurred. From the photographic and documentary evidence I've seen, the genocide did happen, much in the way genocide has occurred in recent years in the Sudan and Rwanda. Pamuk believes it did as well, and must be discussed:

"What happened to the Ottoman Armenians in 1915 was a major thing that was hidden from the Turkish nation; it was a taboo," the writer explains, at an Istanbul cafe overlooking the waterfront.

"But we have to be able to talk about the past."

Another author has this to say:

"We must face these realities to become a real democratic country. We are giving a struggle for this, to give light to the dark pages of our history," Ragip Zarakolu explains, watching his latest book roll-off the printing presses.

"Some conservative, nationalist and even fascist circles are very disturbed by this, but we are in need of it. Not for the Armenians or any others - but for citizens of Turkey."

Opposing them are those who want to maintain the non-discussion status quo:

"He overstepped the mark," insists group leader Kemal Kerincsiz, adding proudly that his association has also filed charges against eight other writers.

"Pamuk is a literary figure, but he made political comments that were ill-informed, untrue and anti-Turkish. We acted on behalf of all society. Orhan Pamuk should not have played with history, and with the sentiments of Turks."

By denying the past in this way, people continue the negative legacies of their forebears. Honest understanding of the good and the bad lets you celebrate and continue the good while excising the bad and never repeating it. I can only believe that those who deny the evils of those who went before already feel somehow disempowered, and can either not stand to let go of false pride in their history or want the option of repeating what went before.

The BBC story

Jacques Chirac made a bit of a splash yesterday with the following comment, made during a visit to a nuclear base in France:

"Leaders of any state that uses terrorist means against us, as well as any that may be envisaging - in one way or another - using weapons of mass destruction, must understand that they would be exposing themselves to a firm and appropriate response on our behalf."

"That response could be conventional, it could also be of another nature..."

He also indicated a change in policy to allow graduated, rather than total, use of nuclear weapons, as well as their use to protect strategic interests in addition to population centers.

Of course, the big question remains "How do you use nuclear weapons to target a stateless power?" If the various incarnations of Al Qaeda, for instance, live in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and the Sudan, what do you do about that? At best, nuclear weapons seem to be a threat against states to clean up their interiors, but that presents its own host of problems, ranging from a military response (how would Pakistan respond to a tactical nuclear strike on their territory?) to the generation of additional enemies (just how much vengeance do you generate if you destroy even a mid-sized town in another nation?).

Even so, the reinstatement of some form of conceptual "mutually assured destruction" policy might be partially worthwhile, if only by dint of putting other states on notice that they have to police their local radicals well. And even without such a policy, everyone does need to think about just what any nuclear-armed state would do if something truly bad -- for example, a smallpox attack -- wiped out some significant fraction of its population.

Of course, as with the Cold War, almost no one really wants to see someone try to call another nation's bluff. Unlike the Cold War, there are far more stateless agents out there who might not fear the consequences.

The BBC article
The Al Jazeera article
The CNN article
The GlobalSecurity.org entry on France's nuclear weapons
The GlobalSecurity.org summary table of nuclear capabilities

France has an estimated 350 nuclear weapons and four nuclear submarines (the latter carrying 64 of the nuclear devices -- others are independent missile systems and plane-launched).

As reported by the BBC, the Italian parliament has passed legislation that "permits the use of guns and knives by people in homes or workplaces to protect lives or belongings."

This new law is not going through without controversy:

However, the centre-left opposition expressed concern that it would encourage violence and lead to increased use of firearms.

A criminal lawyers' group also criticized the law, saying it amounted to allowing "legitimate offence".

This is a fascinating article when compared with the general American point of view on the topic of self defense. Whether most people are armed or not, imagine trying to convince people that they aren't legally allowed to use a weapon to defend themselves, especially in their own homes.

Also, the concept that a measure would be bad for "delegating use of force to citizens" is starkly different from our point of view. To someone raised on the idea of government by and for the people, the concept that force is delegated from the government, rather than to the government is a little unsettling.

I leave the comment by the criminal lawyers' group to indicate that Italy is no stranger to ridiculous statements.

Slobodan Milosevic, on trial for crimes against humanity and genocide, died.

The BBC story
The Al Jazeera story
The CNN story

ETA, the Basque terrorist separatist group, has announced a ceasefire, as reported on in this story. This is their first ceasefire since one in 1998, which they broke within a year. You can read the full text of their message here. This is the key bit:

Euskadi Ta Askatasuna has decided to declare a permanent ceasefire from 24 March 2006.

The Spanish and French states must recognise the results of this democratic process, without limitations of any kind. The decision we Basque citizens make on our future will have to be respected.

Though ETA continued attacks after September 11, it's believed that they've finally had to give up on killing via bombings following the Madrid bombings of 2004. It's quite possible that, like the IRA, ETA members think they can no longer run the risk of being associated with the broader umbrella of "terrorism" with its new, Al Qaeda taint.

ETA stands for "Euskadi ta Askatasuna", which is Basque for "Basque Fatherland and Liberty." Their territorial claims include the current Basque administrative region in Spain, three territories in France and the Spanish territory of Navarre. You can read more about ETA in this Council on Foreign Relations report.

An unconfirmed posting by an al Qaeda-associated group indicates plans to kill four Russian embassy staffers kidnapped earlier this week.

The message follows on the heels of the group's unreasonable demands that Russia withdraw from Chechnya and release its Muslim prisoners in the space of 48 hours. Once again, even were the Russians entirely gung-ho on this idea, the impossible deadline points toward the validity of the actual demand as anything but a propaganda piece.

However, there's an important footnote in this story:

Chechen fighters on Tuesday demanded the release of the hostages.

Akhmed Zakayev, the exiled foreign minister in the Chechen rebel "government", denied any links to the Mujahidin Shura Council.

Much like Hamas before them, the Chechens, while showing very few qualms about using similar tactics, refuse to be associated with al Qaeda.

The Al Jazeera story

You know your state is a world power when it's making environmental agreements with sovereign nations.

Today, Tony Blair and Arnold Schwarzenegger signed a joint mission statement indicating that:

Britain and California will "commit to urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and promote low carbon technologies".

And:

"California and the UK recognise the linkages between climate change, energy security, human health and robust economic growth," it adds.

"Working together, California and the UK commit to build upon current efforts, share experiences, find new solutions and work to educate the public on the need for aggressive action to address climate change and promote energy diversity."

They are also looking at potential cooperation on an emissions-trading plan.

A spokesman for the British consulate denied that this is a workaround for President Bush, who withdrew from the Kyoto global warming accord and has been proactively shunning news of the need for environmentally driven changes for years.

Of course, on the whole, it makes sense for the UK (GDP $1.83 trillion) and California (GDP $1.54 trillion) to work together. And, if one did want to work around the executive, it's better to deal with 12.5% of the American economy than nothing at all.

Last month, German police discovered two identical bombs in trains in Dortmund and Koblenz. Both failed to explode, but would likely have caused massive casualties.

The BBC story about their discovery

They now have two suspects in custody, one arrested last week in Germany, the other having just been arrested in Tripoli. The first man is Lebanese; no word on the second, although it seems likely given where he was picked up.

The BBC story about their capture

The al Jazeera story about their capture

So why hit Germany? Options include a "local" disgruntlement, given that Germany is not the greatest place to be an immigrant, or an attempt to force Germany out of Arab or Muslim territory. At the moment, the Bundeswehr is active in Afghanistan, Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Operation Enduring Freedom's Horn of Africa subsection, and a small presence in the Sudan.

The military of South Ossetia nearly bagged a big catch -- the Georgian Defense Minister. His helicopter was successfully struck by ground fire and forced to make an emergency landing in Georgian-controlled territory after what the South Ossetians claim was a violation of their airspace.

The BBC story

A background on the territory

In March, the Basque separatist (and terrorist) group Eta announced a ceasefire, with the professed aim of promoting a democratic resolution to the question of Basque independence.

Last Saturday, Eta spokespeople announced that the group has no plans to disarm, and that it "confirms its commitment to continue to fight... until independence and socialism for the Basque country is won."

Eta has not yet carried out any attacks, so this may simply have been a rhetorical push to try and gain a little more leverage in any potential future negotiations, or to avoid losing credibility.

As an aside, it's apparent from their speeches that Eta wants not only a free Basque homeland, but expects to be in charge of that homeland once it becomes independent. I imagine many Basque people would like their own country; I'm not as certain that they'd want it to be a socialist country.

The Al Jazeera story

Four months ago, four Russian embassy staffers were kidnapped and killed in Iraq, as I discussed here. Putin reportedly ordered Russian special forces to "take all necessary measures to find and destroy" the killers. Checking back on things, there has been exactly zero news on this topic -- as there would have to be, if Russian special forces were actually at large in U.S.-occupied Iraq.

But the organization responsible for the murders, the Mujahidin Shura Council, was the same group that took to the streets in Ramadi earlier in October to declare the town part of a (Sunni) Islamic state within Iraq.

This suggests Russia has not been able to resolve this problem. Then again, the vigorous declaration up front may have been an end in itself.

Amidst a continuing dispute with Georgia that centers on the breakaway Georgian region of South Ossetia but which is really about Russian control over Eastern Europe, that has seen Russia deporting Georgian diplomats and spiking Georgian gas prices while enacting a trade embargo, and amidst controversy over whether the Russian government was involved in the assassination of Anna Politkovskaya and the poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko, Russia has now announced that it's going to ban imports of EU animal products.

The ostensible reason? The Russian government claims that two pending EU members, Bulgaria and Romania, have poor animal health standards.

The real reason? Most likely that the Russian executive is upset about declining influence over its Eastern European neighbors. The last time Russia threatened a ban on EU animal products was ahead of the entry of another eight former Eastern bloc nations into the EU.

Although Putin appears to be effectively consolidating his control within Russia, the heavy-handed nature of these interventions or would-be-interventions have increasingly driven its neighbors toward the EU and the US.

The International Herald Tribune article

Today, paroled loyalist murderer Michael Stone attempted to breach the Northern Ireland parliament buildings at Stormont, where discussions over devolution were taking place. He came in with a gun, a knife, and one or more bombs, and was rapidly tackled by Stormont security.

Stone most likely falls into that category of people who, despite espousing a sectarian cause, wouldn't be happy were their ostensible wishes to come true, as it would remove the actual thing that gives them meaning -- the celebrity and power involved in being a player in "the struggle."

Check out the video associated with the linked BBC article to see that at least some other people can't put their sectarianism away, either. Note especially the speaker who can't help but make a strongly political statement about the devolution talks, then tacks on a comment that, of course, the important part was that no one was hurt.

Good work by the Stormont security staff, who unhesitatingly took on an armed man.

The BBC article

Friction between Russia and its neighbors -- all components of the former Soviet Union -- continues.

Georgian forces detained two Russian "peacekeepers" in South Ossetia, accusing them of smuggling. They were later released as a "manifestation of goodwill." Showing less goodwill, Russia held Manana Dzhabelia, a diabetic Georgian woman, for two months pending deportation. Unfortunately, she died in custody, the second such death since Russia began expelling ethnic Georgians. She is said to have not received proper medical care while being held.

Meanwhile, U.S. undersecretary of state for political affairs Nicholas Burns has called for Russia to withdraw its remaining troops from both Georgia and Moldova, and to keep out of internal conflicts in neighboring states. In response, Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov called for an avoidance of "politicized solutions" to these problems.

Russia's ambassador to Serbia has stated that Russia will use its veto power to block any U.N. settlement on the status of Kosovo if that settlement is unsuitable for either party involved:

“In case the status solution is not acceptable to both sides — both Belgrade and Pristina — the Russian side will use its veto power,” Alekseyev was quoted as saying.

Or, translated, "We're going to keep Kosovo from separating from Serbia, because the government of Serbia doesn't want that to happen."

Also:

Serbian officials repeatedly have said they count on Russia’s veto in the Security Council to prevent Kosovo independence, but Alexeyev comments to B92 mark the first time a Russian official confirmed such a possibility. There was no immediate comment from Moscow.

Russia in the past has urged both sides to find a negotiated settlement and warned against one-sided solutions. Moscow fears that Kosovo independence could set a precedent for Russian-backed separatist regions in the former Soviet Union.

MosNews story

Documents placed in the British National Archives show that in 1976, various officials warned Prime Minister Harold Wilson that a war with Argentina over the Falklands was inevitable, if talks did not occur. They also point to the ongoing debate about the expensive measures that would have had to be taken to put in place preventative defenses around the Falklands. This kind of debate -- how much prevention, and how much is it worth? -- comes up over and over again in international affairs.

You can read more about the 1976 papers by clicking here.

Delving even deeper into history, this year the United Kingdom will finally pay off its World War II debts owed to Canada and the United States. The loans of $4.33 billion from the US and $1.19 billion from Canada will end up costing the UK $7.5 billion and $2 billion to pay off.

The UK still owes and is owed money from World War I, but all such payments have been on hold since 1934. I wonder if, perhaps, some of the countries involved no longer exist.

You can read about the UK making good by clicking here.

British investigators are trying to figure out the whereabouts of a businessman who may have been traveling with one Dimitri Kovtun, the latter now under investigation by German authorities for his possible role in trafficking polonium. Russian authorities refused the Germans access to the Aeroflot flight Kovtun took to Germany, instead insisting he was not an assassin, but rather another assassination target. They've gone on to offer -- with a straight face -- the suggestion that former Yukos oil executive Leonid Nevzlin was behind the killing of Alexander Litvinenko. This claim might be vaguely more credible -- although not actually credible -- were Russia not already trying to get Nevzlin extradited from Israel on somewhat suspect fraud charges.

Of course, if you don't buy that Nevzlin did it, maybe you'll go for another former Yukos executive. I'd recommend Mikhail Khodorkovsky on the basis of his already being in jail, but the Russian Prosecutor General's office beat me to the punch. They've questioned him already.

With misdirection this clumsy, it would be better for Putin to just be quiet and leave it alone. Litvinenko's already out of the news cycle; blaming Yukos execs just pushes him back in.

Much like tenured loser Michael Stone in Northern Ireland, at least some component of ETA appears to have walked away from the permanent ceasefire the group declared last March.

In the process, they appear to have killed two Ecuadorean men, despite calls ahead of time to clear the structure. Of course, that might just be one of those risks one takes when destroying huge public buildings. And had they been lucky and not killed anyone over a political issue that lacks support even in their own ethnic base, they'd still be burning through recovery and rebuilding funds that could instead have gone to public health and other services for their people, to the tune of millions upon millions of dollars.

Renouncing violence brought ETA to the bargaining table, against the wishes of the conservative opposition in Spain. Now they've given up on that table in favor of the vanity project of expressing their personal power through indirect violence.

A century of Ian Paisley and Gerry Adams pettiness is better than a day of Michael-Stone-style madness. Whoever's acting out their insecurities in ETA needs to get that message.

BBC article
al Jazeera article

The second expected body has been found in the wreckage of the Madrid airport. Diego Armando Estacio, 19, and Carlos Alonso Palate, 35, both of Ecuador, were killed in their car by last week's ETA bombing of the airport.

No matter what, calls ahead of time or no, if you're setting off bombs, you're going to kill people.

al Jazeera article

"Who remembers now the destruction of the Armenians?"

From this CNN article, transcripts of taped conversations between Husein and his aides prior to killing 180,000 Kurds in the Anfal campaign:

"I will strike them with chemical weapons and kill them all," a voice identified by prosecutors as that of Majeed, Hussein's cousin and a senior aide, is heard saying.

"Who is going to say anything? The international community? Curse the international community," the voice continued.

This is not to make the Hitler-Hussein comparison, but to point out that anytime a genocide is ignored, it sends the message that you, too, can get away with genocide.

This is also not a time for people to self-righteously say "Well, we toppled this genocidal bastard," because the Anfal campaign happened on the Reagan-Bush watch, and we left it alone because it had very little to do with us.

Just like Sudan.

It's not really children's week so much as children's month.

In an unsurprisingly immature statement, Eta mixed a denial and an acceptance along with some misdirection to yield a piece of junk press release:

The paper said: "Eta affirms that the permanent ceasefire started on 24 March, 2006 still stands. It claims responsibility for the attack at Barajas (airport)."

Eta said it had given advance warning of the attack and condemned the fact that the targeted building had not been evacuated.

So, for the record, they blew up a building, but their ceasefire is still in effect. Great. So when the Spanish government razes every structure in the Basque territory to the ground (which they're not going to do, of course), but doesn't intend to kill anyone, that's also maintaining a "ceasefire." Good to know.

And, since they didn't mean to kill anyone and were good enough to make a call ahead of time it's not their fault that they murdered those two men who were so foolish as to think you could safely rest in your car in a parking garage. Instead, it's the fault of the government for not evacuating. Or maybe them, for being asleep. Who knows?

Again, if you're blowing things up, you're killing people. If I walk into a room, yell "Look out!" and start shooting wildly, "They didn't get out of the way in time" is not going to be an adequate defense.

Much like Michael Stone in Northern Ireland, the remaining Eta members are probably no longer the True Believers, but the needy, those who have a pathological desire for public attention, but are similarly unwilling to accept responsibility for bad outcomes.

BBC article
al Jazeera article

An amnesty offered by the Russian government to Chechen insurgents expired last night. The amnesty was first offered July 15, after the killing of Chechen leader Shamil Basayev, who was behind the 2004 school attack in Beslan. Although specific figures differ, the Russian antiterrorism committee says about five hundred insurgents have surrendered under the amnesty.

Mosnews
AP reporting

In many ways.

India joined the "able to launch and recover spacecraft" club this week, as a capsule was successfully recovered from the Bay of Bengal following eleven days in space. The Indian space program has an uncrewed lunar mission scheduled for February of next year, and hopes to have an astronaut in space by 2014.

You can read the full details in this al Jazeera article.

Over in this BBC article, BBC South Asia bureau editor Paul Danahar discusses the real take-home lesson from a recent, well-publicized racism incident on the UK version of Big Brother (a reality TV show):

But more interestingly the incident has also shown that India, contrary to the fears of British diplomats, has become comfortable enough with its position in the world to see things like the Big Brother row in perspective.

...

But as India this year prepares to celebrate its 60th anniversary of independent rule one thing seems to be clear.

The "Britishers" are no longer the bogeymen they used to be because India is no longer suffering from the inferiority complex it used to have. India no longer feels the need to dwell on past injustices because it's too busy getting ready for what many predict will be its future greatness.

...

One English commentator noted after the row erupted that "Shilpa Shetty has taken the supposed British virtues of civility, articulacy, reserve and having a stiff upper lip and shown that.. we lack them".

They did so because they recognised a huge pool of well-educated, English-speaking, middle-class people that could do the job not only cheaper than the folks back home, but often better.

As reported in this BBC article, Italian prosecutors are charging Specialist Mario Lozano with murder in the death of Italian intelligence agent Nicola Calipari at an American checkpoint in Iraq in 2005.

This BBC article compares the American and Italian government analyses of what happened at that checkpoint. Their primary points of disagreement are on just how fast the Italian-driven vehicle was going, how quickly it stopped, and how long they had to react to warning shots. The Italian report posits that:

"It is likely that the state of tension stemming from the conditions of time, circumstances and place, as well as possibly some degree of inexperience and stress, might have led some soldiers to instinctive and little controlled reactions,"

This is probably true. I imagine the relative perception of time for parties on both sides had a lot to do with their position on that night. If you're manning a checkpoint in a country rife with suicide bombers, the approach time of a car seems like seconds, at best. If you're in the car, and some soldiers have just started shooting at you, it seems like forever until they stop.

Both accounts agree that communication between Italian government officials and American officials before the incident was insufficient. It's possible the miscommunication between them led the Italians' American contact to believe that the Italians did not want the presence of their rescue operation (of journalist Giuliana Sgrena) announced, whereas the Italian intelligence officers may have believed the Americans had been warned in advance -- which would naturally lead them to approach the checkpoint with a little less caution.

Sgrena and her associated newspaper have pushed the idea that she was deliberately targeted by "the Americans." Of course, why we'd choose to use a random Army Spec. to assassinate someone, I have no idea. I think bad plans like that really only turn up in movies. In general, the official Italian and American accounts match each other better than either matches some of Sgrena's assertions, at least as I've seen them reported in the BBC.

This looks very much like it's about making a point locally, within Italy, rather than to us or any other outside country. The official reports on both sides say "accident."

After all, were it anything else, why would Sgrena and the other agent be alive?

(As an additional note, I haven't seen anything more specific on the type of murder they're charging Spec. Lozano with, so I don't know if the official case is asserting specific intent on his part to kill an Italian special agent, or some equivalent of voluntary manslaughter.)

Sergei Yastrzhembsky, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s special representative on EU relations, gave the EU a polite "don't touch our stuff" message with regard to former Soviet territories. Russia still feels it has a claim on these areas, but the expansion of the EU to include former Warsaw Pact nations is rapidly giving the EU common borders with quite a few former Soviet lands -- and prompting the EU to take an interest in local disputes. This isn't great for Russia, which has been sponsoring separatists in Moldova and Georgia (despite being such a stickler about separatists in Chechnya).

At the same time, Russia has announced it is expanding its ICBM fleet, picking up 17 new Topol-M missiles (versus an average 4 per year in earlier years):

President Vladimir Putin and other Russian officials have described the Topol-M as a bulwark of Russia’s nuclear might for years to come, and hailed its ability to penetrate any prospective missile defenses. Putin last week dismissed Washington’s claims that missile defense sites it hopes to establish in Poland and the Czech Republic were intended to counter threats posed by Iran, and said that Russia would respond by developing even more efficient weapons systems.

Even so, Putin wants businesses in Russia to do as he says, and not as he does. He's warned them to stop using scary language like "expansion" and "market conquest", lest they freak out potential future expandees.

From the AP:

Nearly 60 countries signed a treaty on Tuesday that bans governments from holding people in secret detention, but the United States and some of its key European allies were not among them.

State Department spokesman Sean McCormack declined comment except to say that the United States helped draft the treaty, but that the final text "did not meet our expectations."

Lest you get too caught up in the fact that we haven't signed on, consider everyone else who also declined to commit: Britain, Germany, Italy, Spain...

Notably, various Americans are currently being prosecuted (in absentia) or considered for prosecution in at least two of those countries for renditions carried out within their borders. Of course, inasmuch as the EU member states appear, based on documents from meetings with the US, to have agreed to the policy of allowing these renditions, the pending legal proceedings represent the people in those countries disagreeing with the official policy of their respective nations.

Or, in other words, carrying on a dialogue that will strengthen their respective democracies.

Everyone in charge ends up being a little suspect from time to time, don't you think?

The EU parliament has endorsed a report condemning member states that let the CIA carry out rendition operations within their borders.

Although the report has no force in EU law, Mr Fava [ Giovanni Fava, Italian Socialist MEP and author of the report] said during the parliamentary debate that the related investigation, over a year, had uncovered much new evidence.

It was not possible to contradict evidence or suggestions that secret detention centres were operated in Poland and Romania, the report said.

Countries called out by the report include Austria, Cyprus, Denmark, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Spain, Sweden, Poland, Portugal, Romania, and the United Kingdom. The report also calls for shutting down Guantanamo, and release of any European ciitzens held there.

Curiously enough, the defense of choice for those who are embarassed to have their cooperation with us highlighted is to suggest that the whole thing is an anti-American effort:

Centre-right MEPs - the largest group in parliament - have been highly critical of the report, saying it is primarily motivated by anti-Americanism.

Many of the governments fingered in the report were happy to complain about CIA operations on their soil, right up until someone bothered to point out that these things were all done with the willing cooperation of those governments -- and they "benefited" from the results as much as we did. Trying to tag the report as "anti-American" is an attempt to deflect the core point of the report -- that many, many people cooperated with our CIA on this. The American role has been widespread public knowledge for a while now. If anything, this report is "anti-European responsiblity dodging."

BBC article
al Jazeera article

It's looking suspiciously like the pending British drawdown in Iraq is actually a switchover, as 1,400 troops are slated to head off to Afghanistan to reinforce British efforts against the Taliban. That will bring their total in Afghanistan to a couple hundred shy of 8,000 troops.

Secretary of Defence Des Browne claims that the increase in Afghanistan did not precipitate the drawdown in Iraq. Whether or not this is true, it's certainly a step in the right direction, and shows that the UK is moving toward a more rational application of its forces than our President's emotional investment in not being wrong allows.

Consider again that earlier this month, one of our own generals was in Brussels begging for 2,000 more troops, even as we were planning on tossing another 20,000 or so into Iraq. It's fortunate that, in the absence of timely help from most other NATO member states (save Poland, who upped their contribution from 100 to 1,000 troops), the British government had the will and the wit to send more troops to an area that was once a breeding ground for terrorism, and could be yet again -- potentially bringing Pakistan and its arsenal along for the ride, if we're not careful.

For the Conservatives the shadow defence secretary Liam Fox said the increase indicated that "we are taking a disproportionate burden".

He said success in Afghanistan was "essential" for global security and said there were now questions to be asked about the future of Nato.

I believe we have done tremendous damage to the willingness of NATO partners to participate in the war in Afghanistan, because by sending such limited resources to such a critical region, we've made it seem as unwinnable as the counterinsurgency in Iraq clearly is. Perhaps the additional British commitment will demonstrate that that is not so.

BBC article

It's drawdown time again for the British military. As the Eufor contingent in Bosnia moves from 6,000 troops to 2,500, 600 British troops formerly stationed in Bosnia will be moved out of the area. Once again, the question is whether ths is an intended drawdown following stabilization in Bosnia -- as is the claim -- or if it's an example of "scratching around" as a consequence of military overextension, to paraphrase Liam Fox.

Certainly, the relatively close match in numbers between the British drawdown in Iraq and the planned increases in Afghanistan made those two moves feel like almost a one-to-one switchover. That said, the fact that 600 troops are leaving Bosnia as part of a 3,500-person reduction in Eufor suggests that the Bosnia drawdown, while perhaps timely, was not explicitly done to aid in reinforcing Afghanistan.

Conservative MP Tobias Ellwood, who served in Bosnia, welcomed the statement but there were "lessons to be learned".

He said in Bosnia, there was one Nato soldier for every square kilometre while in Afghanistan, there was one for every 600 sq km.

Although I made the occupation-force-versus-area comparison between Iraq and Bosnia in this discussion of the insanity of our limited Iraq war plan, perhaps the more valid comparison is force to population. When Ellwood refers to "one soldier for every square kilometre", he means the initial NATO force of 60,000 troops that went in in 1995-96. That initial force total amounted to one soldier for every seventy-five citizens. The current NATO Afghanistan force is about 35,000-strong, or one soldier for every 885 citizens. It's not the fifty-fold difference that the area comparison generates, but it's still not good. The rule of thumb for a modern pacification effort is on the order of one soldier per 50 citizens -- Bosnia was right in the ballpark here. That said, Afghanistan actually has reasonably competent, reasonably allied armed forces, so there may well be large areas of the country that can be "written out" of security estimates, much as the Kurdish areas in Iraq typically are.

Unlike in Iraq, I remain cautiously optimistic that an increase in troops in theater will actually help in Afghanistan.

BBC article
al Jazeera article

al Jazeera reports in this article about parliamentary voting in the breakaway province of Abkhazia, nominally a part of Georgia, but effectively independent since a civil war in the early 90s. Notably, the separatist struggles of both Abkhazia and another Georgian province, South Ossetia, have received substantial backing from Russia. This is a potentially dangerous game for Russia, as they attempt to drive the fragmentation of states such as Georgia and Moldova on one hand to retain regional dominance, yet throw thousands of lives away and cause massive damage trying to retain Chechnya. It becomes especially worrisome when you consider that some of the killers at Beslan may well have been separatists from the Ossetia region in Russia.

Guns and funds don't politely stop at the borders.

Russia has begun construction on floating nuclear power plants, based initially on the low-end nuclear plants currently used in their icebreaker fleet, and then moving on to midrange plants based on the reactors used in their nuclear subs.

"This is a unique potential in both Russian and world power engineering. We have unique competitive advantages: no other country in the world had so many reactor-years and such a unique nuclear fleet as we did."

Greenpeace, naturally, is freaking out about this.

They're not unjustified, either. As Sergey Kiriyenko, head of the Russian nuclear energy agency Rosatom, said above, the former Soviet fleet has many "reactor-years" of experience. Some of that experience involves ditching nuclear reactors in the sea around the Kola peninsula. Given that the same people who cavalierly scrapped nuclear reactors by simply sinking them are now in charge of making these floating reactor platforms, Greenpeace is right to be concerned.

al Jazeera article

The people of Chagos were removed from their home islands in the late 60s and early 70s by the government of the UK when it leased the island of Diego Garcia to the US (we use it as a military base). Since then, the displaced Chagossians have been fighting for the right to return to the islands

They won the right of return in a court case in 2000, but following several years of inactivity, the government of the UK used royal prerogative to overturn the court decision, arguing that "it would not be right for the Chagossians to be allowed home because of security concerns." (That's an al Jazeera quote, not a quote from any British official.)

That use of royal prerogative has now been deemed unlawful.

Lord Justice Sedley, giving the lead ruling, said the government's use of the Order in Council under the Royal Prerogative - powers that allow action without reference to Parliament - was an unlawful way of preventing the islanders from returning.

"To accept the islanders' right to return but do nothing about it - as it did between 2000 and 2004 - would be meaningless and immoral."

The government has one final avenue of appeal open to it -- the House of Lords. They have a month to decide whether or not to file such an appeal.

BBC article
al Jazeera article

This week brings some contrasting efforts to change the world, two happening in the courts, the third ending up in the courts.

In the Netherlands, relatives of people killed in the 1995 Srebrenica massacre are suing the Dutch government. While the Dutch governmental response is that all claims should be made against those who committed the massacre, the plaintiffs in this case argue that the Dutch government is at fault for refusing to provide air support for Dutch troops in Srebrenica. Certainly, it's true that people flocked to Srebrenica as a safe haven, only to find that is really wasn't. You can read more in this BBC article.

Elsewhere, the government of Nigeria, as well as the government of the Nigerian state of Kano, have filed suit against big pharma company Pfizer, claiming that it carried out improper trials for a meningitis drug, and in so doing caused deaths, as well as mental and physical problems. Pfizer holds that it did everything properly, and obtained "verbal consent" from parents of children who were involved. you can read more in this BBC article.

Finally, a plot to violently overthrow the government of Laos was busted up in California. Nine people, led by former Hmong general Vang Pao, were trying to buy weapons en masse to equip an insurgent effort in Laos, with the goal of taking out several government buildings. The Hmong, who you may never have heard of, are ethnic minorities in Laos who were backed and equipped by the CIA during our larger war in Southeast Asia. When we pulled out of the effort, we mostly abandoned the Hmong, although some have filtered over to the US, and others ended up lingering in refugee camps in Thailand for years. The BBC has an overview of the state of the Hmong in Laos here. You can read the full article on this abortive insurgency here.

During his three decades in office, Mobutu Sese Seko stole quite a bit of money from his nation of Zaire, squirreling it away in Swiss bank accounts. Estimates of the money stolen place the amount in multiple billions of dollars, money that could really help former Zaire (now the Democratic Republic of the Congo) deal with any number of current problems. The DRC's government was hopeful that the Swiss government would repatriate something on the order of a billion dollars or so up until yesterday, when the Swiss announced that they'll be handing back $6.6 million instead.

Naturally, the government of the DRC is a little disappointed. The Swiss government insists that's all the embezzled money they have on hand. Did the dictator somehow spend the other $990 million while he was still alive?

Unfortunately for the government of the DRC, they're going to have very, very little leverage over the Swiss.

BBC article

Vladimir Putin announced this week that Russia will start Soviet-style long-range bomber flights.

"We have decided to restore flights by Russian strategic aviation on a permanent basis," Mr Putin told reporters at joint military exercises with China and four Central Asian states in Russia's Ural mountains.

"Flights by other countries' strategic aircraft continue and this creates certain problems for ensuring the security of the Russian Federation," he said.

As the article notes, the original cessation of threat flights like these wasn't done for peaceful reasons, but rather because Russia could no longer afford the fuel costs. Now that they have the cash again, Putin is able to restart the practice.

The State Department was fairly blase about the announcement, which is an appropriate response. During the Cold War, the very immediate possibility of nuclear war made these shadowing flights a real problem. These days, they're much more a symbol of Russian prestige, and that's fine.

BBC article

In a semi-surprise move, Vladimir Putin sacked the current prime minister of Russia and has nominated as his replacement Viktor Zubkov. Zubkov is currently the head of a group fighting money laundering for the Russian government, and previously worked for Putin as part of the city government of St. Petersburg. Putin's ostensible reason is providing a new prime minister to help with the upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections, but many suspect that he's setting Zubkov up as the next president. The suspicion then is that Putin would effectively continue to manage the country through Zubkov.

Certainly, Putin has acted in other ways to refocus power in Russia on himself and cut into chaos and democratic reforms. It wouldn't be shocking to find he had a game plan to continue to rule the country for quite a while (until Zubkov changes his mind about being controlled...).

al Jazeera article
CNN article

Russian journalist Anna Politkovskaya was well-known for her critical views on Vladimir Putin, especially on the military operations he launched against Chechnya.

Ms. Politkovskaya was shot last October outside her apartment.

Now, someone has been charged with her murder. Who is this entirely believable suspect?

Former Chechen presidential candidate Shamil Burayev.

According to Russian prosecutors, Burayev was part of a cabal of foreign interlopers (If he's foreign, does that mean Chechnya actually isn't part of Russia? Good to know...) bent on destabilizing Russia.

They're just not trying very hard these days. Of course, as they're playing to an internal audience starving for pride, they don't need to.

BBC article

This summer saw an outbreak of the economically devastating foot-and-mouth disease among livestock in the United Kingdom. Thanks in large part to a rapid and concerted response by the government, it was of relatively limited scope -- two farms, $100 million in economic harm.

(Let that sink in for a moment, that a well-handled FMD outbreak hit the UK for $100 million.)

Now, the infection has been traced not to a natural origin but to accidental release of FMD virus from a vaccine facility run by the Merial corporation and housed in a building managed by the UK government's Institute for Animal Health. Here's how it happened:

A two-step chemical strategy is used at Pirbright [the IAH facility] to prevent FMD from escaping in liquid waste. Both Merial and IAH first treat wastewater at their own buildings with a disinfectant such as citric acid. Then, a complex system of pipes takes the water to a shared effluent treatment plant, managed by IAH, where caustic soda is used to raise the pH to 12 and kill off any remaining virus during a 12-hour holding period. Finally, the liquid is released into the sewer.

As it happened, construction crews were digging holes around the leaks at the time, and heavy trucks--without proper IAH oversight--drove through the presumably virus-laden mud. Some of these vehicles later took a road that went very close to the first infected farm. From there, the farmer may have carried the virus to his herd.

Quoted from this article in Science magazine.

It's just these kinds of problems that are the big fear about facilities that work with pathogens. As the Science article discusses, a number of well-known pathogen research centers are also on the older side, and there are concerns that their infrastructure may also lend itself to these kinds of accidental releases. Add to this the possibility for procedural errors -- whether it's letting trucks drive through areas they shouldn't or forgetting to put in a new air filter in your anthrax research lab's exhaust system, and the worry is that an incorrectly managed research center may accidentally spawn the next pandemic.

It is not particularly comforting then, that Texas A&M has recently been gigged in a big way for substantial failings in their own biosafety procedures, including losing several vials of Brucella, the causative agent of the hard-to-treat Malta fever, and accidentally exposing a number of workers to Q fever. Texas A&M interim president Eddie Davis lamely defended TAMU's record by saying that "institutions under that same level of review would probably have findings that would be reportable to the CDC." He then praised the now-former biosafety compliance director for being "very loyal and competent." Competent would be good, but I don't see how loyalty to TAMU helps the rest of Texas if they're not maintaining proper safety.

It's common for people to shrug and move on in the face of regulation, doing just enough to comply. We have to remember, however, that screwing up the safety compliance in a pathogen lab is not the same as failing to maintain a piece of heavy machinery. The latter may result in a massive work accident, but the former might wipe out a city or all agriculture in the midwest.

This week in the United Nations, the bad blood between Russia and Georgia continued, as Russia complained about the deaths of two of its military officers and Georgia, in turn, asked what Russian officers were doing on formally Georgian soil.

Here's the argument in a nutshell:

"One has to wonder -- what was a vice colonel of the Russian military doing in the Georgian forests, organizing and leading a group of armed insurgents on a mission of terror?" the Georgian leader said.

Immediately following Saakashvili's speech, Russia's ambassador to the U.N., Vitaly Churkin, told reporters that the men were instructors at an "anti-terrorist training center" and were killed Sept. 20 by knife wounds and gunshots to the head.

This isn't the first time the Georgians have done something about Russians in breakaway Georgian territories. Just shy of a year ago, they detained two Russian "peacekeepers" in South Ossetia.

Although the Abkhazian conflict chiefly makes the news in its "role" as a proxy war between Russia and Georgia, it has an entirely different "life" online. Much like the summer war between Israel and Hezbollah, the Abkhazian conflict is played out in great detail and with much acrimony on YouTube, with videos coming from both sides.

This video from a pro-Georgian poster gives us a list of Georgians tortured and killed by Abkhazians as part of a "genocide" against Georgians:

Other videos have shown ethnic Georgians being pressed into forced labor on farms by armed Abkhazians.

This video from a pro-Abkhazian poster is simply a grab of a news story concerning a firefight between Georgian and Abkhazian troops that left several Abkhazians dead, but with the appended title "Abkhazian Soldiers are Kidnapped by Puppet Republic Georgia."

As much as I've read about the Abkhazian conflict (which started with a war of separation in the early 90s), I'm unclear on who Georgia is supposed to be a puppet of. If anyone can make a claim of puppetry, it's the Georgians, who can point to Russian advisers hanging out in both the Abkhazian and South Ossetian zones.

It's unclear what influence, if any, these YouTube wars have on the real wars they're prompted by, but they do serve as a far more accurate window into the thought processes of everyone involved than any reporting I've seen. Certainly, if you can stomach it, the comments on these videos tell of the level of distrust and anger present in parties to the conflict -- much as they did during the summer war, and much as I expect they will continue to do as this form of personalized reporting and propaganda continues to be so easy and accessible.

CNN article

A would-be bomber (perhaps suicide, perhaps not) was stopped at the United States embassy in Vienna when his backpack full of explosives and nails set off the metal detector, and he panicked and ran.

Investigation is under way right now to determine if his backpack was actually a viable explosive. I'd put even odds on it not being viable -- a bomber who doesn't realize they're going to set of the metal detector, and who then leaves (instead of rushing the facility and detonating the device) may not be entirely there. Apparently, he has yet to give any kind of coherent statement, either.

The would-be bomber is a Bosnian national.

BBC article
International Herald Tribune article

As part of a package of laws designed to alienate the hell out of anyone foolish enough to immigrate there, the French parliament is now considering adding a voluntary (but at the applicant's expense) DNA test to "expedite" immigration of family members. Although this is making the top headline here, perhaps more important are tests given in one's home country designed to demonstrate good knowledge of French language and "values."

A number of Americans who have had a handful of generations in this country to develop their own xenophobia would like similar requirements for simple immigration. Of course, a key consideration is that French treatment of their immigrant and minority populations led to widespread rioting and burning of cars all throughout Paris. On the other hand, we have, well, a work force that reliably integrates into American culture within a few generations.

Of course, one of the consequences of our melting-pot approach is that you end up with a bit of that culture blended in. For those who are worried about this, I assure you that in a couple generations, your kids won't think twice about going to an Indian pub or celebrating a Chinese holiday, and a whole new generation of American xenophobes will be afraid of those weird folks from Antarctica.

BBC article

This week, al Jazeera reminds us that violence often comes as a result of a mismatch between national borders and ethnic boundaries. In our modern age, these conflicts are the unwieldy children of sometimes arbitrary and sometimes very intentional batching and dividing by the major powers of the twentieth century. The territory once bounded by Soviet borders is a poster child for this issue, whether it's Georgia trying not to further subfragment following its release from the USSR, or the ongoing problem of Tatars returning to the Crimea half a century after Stalin banished them to Central Asia. Similarly, the wake of the Ottoman Empire continues to be alive with conflict, most recently embodied in the declaration by the government of Turkey that they will take military action against Kurdish separatist groups hiding within Iraq, despite past requests from their NATO allies that they not cross that border.

Given the increasing power of the smaller party in modern conflict, and the loss of a major bilateral struggle to drown out other noises, it seems likely that wars of ethnic identity will continue as the defining kind of conflict well into the foreseeable future.

The "investigation" into the murder of Russian journalist Anna Politkovskaya has now netted some additional suspects -- this time, including Lt. Col. Pavel Ryaguzov, a member of the Federal Security Service. Col. Here's the official word, as reported by the BBC:

Investigators believe that he could have passed on details of Ms Politkovskaya's address to another suspect, who in turn gave them to the killer, the source said.

Given that Ms. Politkovskaya wasn't in a protection program at the time, it's hard to say why the killers would have needed a member of the FSS to provide the address of a random journalist. Maybe there are no phone books in Russia. Col. Ryaguzov is added to the already quirky list of suspects centered on a former Chechen politician:

Chief prosecutor Yuri Chaika said at the time that among the suspects were serving and former security officers and that their ringleader was a Chechen gang boss.

Mr Chaika said there were indications that the murder plot had been masterminded abroad with a view to discrediting the Kremlin.

Given that Ms. Politkovskaya was known for writing pieces that exposed abuse of Chechen civilians by the Russian army, this is incredible, in the traditional meaning of the word. That said, a security service that is capable of bombing its own people might well see that as a plausible story to feed to the public.

BBC article

Members of the Basque terrorist group ETA killed a Spanish civil guard officer who was attending a meeting with French police in Capbreton. As ETA often retreats to French territory, the two governments are trying to work together to combat the would-be rulers of a Basque state. This pretty much puts paid to the idea that they aren't actively trying to kill people, although only certified, self-justifying jackoffs think that phoning ahead makes you less responsible for murdering people, so it's a fairly moot point.

Another civil guard member is effectively dead following this shooting, being comatose with no signs of brain function.

The violence really does not bring Basque territories closer to being independent.

CNN article
BBC article

The second officer shot by ETA grandstanders in Capbreton has passed from brain death to clinical death, putting the official tally to two dead from this attack.

BBC article

...if you'