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    <title>Hope is not a plan</title>
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    <updated>2010-03-03T23:24:34Z</updated>
    
    <generator uri="http://www.sixapart.com/movabletype/">Movable Type 3.2</generator>
 
<entry>
    <title>The new landowners</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.hopeisnotaplan.com/2010/03/the_new_landowners.html" />
    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://movabletypo.net/cgi-bin/mt/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=23/entry_id=6692" title="The new landowners" />
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    <published>2010-03-03T23:20:26Z</published>
    <updated>2010-03-03T23:24:34Z</updated>
    
    <summary>Following the default on a $50 million payment by former property owner Page Mill, a housing complex in East Palo Alto&apos;s Woodland Hills neighborhood has reverted to bank control. Following an unsuccessful attempt to auction the properties, Wells Fargo is...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>parakkum</name>
        
    </author>
            <category term="California politics" />
            <category term="Economics" />
    
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        <![CDATA[<p>Following the default on a $50 million payment by former property owner Page Mill, a housing complex in East Palo Alto's Woodland Hills neighborhood has reverted to bank control. Following an unsuccessful attempt to auction the properties, Wells Fargo is now left as the owner of 1,800 residential units, making it the single largest landlord in East Palo Alto.</p>

<p>The properties had a county-appointed caretaker since September, when Page Mill stopped maintaining them due to "cash flow issues." According to <a href="http://www.mv-voice.com/news/show_story.php?id=2580">this article in the Mountain View Voice</a>, local residents are basically pleased that Page Mill has now been entirely removed from the equation, and look forward to better treatment under Wells Fargo's management.</p>]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>Well, shoot. We got stimulus money</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.hopeisnotaplan.com/2010/01/well_shoot_we_got_stimulus_mon.html" />
    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://movabletypo.net/cgi-bin/mt/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=23/entry_id=6664" title="Well, shoot. We got stimulus money" />
    <id>tag:www.hopeisnotaplan.com,2010://23.6664</id>
    
    <published>2010-01-29T04:10:02Z</published>
    <updated>2010-01-29T04:10:23Z</updated>
    
    <summary>In October, our governor requested $4.7 billion in Federal stimulus money. This week, we learn that we&apos;ve received about half of that amount, with $2.25 billion of it marked for California&apos;s much-debated high-speed rail project. In case you&apos;ve lost track,...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>parakkum</name>
        
    </author>
            <category term="California politics" />
    
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        <![CDATA[<p>In October, our governor requested $4.7 billion in Federal stimulus money. This week, we learn that we've received about half of that amount, with $2.25 billion of it marked for California's much-debated high-speed rail project.</p>

<p>In case you've lost track, the high-speed rail project was authorized by California voters in the form of <a href="http://www.hopeisnotaplan.com/2008/09/proposition_1_highspeed_rail_r.html">Prop 1A</a> in the November, 2008 elections. This prop authorized taking out bonds on the order of $10 billion, which equates to $20 billion in debt over thirty years, to build high-speed rail connecting the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles. The main constraint on the project as written into the proposition was a requirement for matching Federal money.</p>

<p>With $2.25 billion coming in, that means the High-Speed Rail Authority is now authorized to issue $2.25 billion in bonds to start work on the project. What will that get us?</p>

<p>If you refer back to my <a href="http://www.hopeisnotaplan.com/2008/09/proposition_1_highspeed_rail_r.html">original analysis</a> I estimated that the full $9 billion for high-speed rail plus full matching Federal funding would yield a high-speed rail route from San Francisco to Paso Robles. Notably, not Los Angeles. If I extend this same analysis to having just $4.5 billion total to work with, we should expect to be able to generate some 60-70 miles of track.</p>

<p>That's roughly the distance from San Francisco to Morgan Hill (just south of San Jose), or from Los Angeles to Oxnard or Ventura.</p>

<p>That's a significant state debt to take on in exchange for trying to exchange, say, the Peninsula's Caltrain rail system for a high-speed rail system on the same right of way.</p>

<p>Right now, I can't cleanly and quickly make my way around the entire SF Bay Area using public transit. I take Caltrain to and from work, and can exchange from Caltrain to BART or VTA and beyond, but each transfer slows the trip tremendously. It seems as if it would have been rational to seek Federal funding to support metropolitan public transit improvements, as these would in turn directly generate jobs as well as facilitating job growth by connecting commuting employees to employers they could not otherwise reasonably reach.</p>

<p>$2.25 billion in Federal money would buy a lot of trains and buses. Or 60 miles of high-speed rail.</p>

<p><a href="http://www.mv-voice.com/news/show_story.php?id=2459">Mountain View Voice</a></p>]]>
        
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<entry>
    <title>No statute of limitations, yet again</title>
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    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://movabletypo.net/cgi-bin/mt/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=23/entry_id=6652" title="No statute of limitations, yet again" />
    <id>tag:www.hopeisnotaplan.com,2010://23.6652</id>
    
    <published>2010-01-18T19:12:06Z</published>
    <updated>2010-01-18T19:16:17Z</updated>
    
    <summary>One of the brightest trends of our new millennium is the ongoing demonstration that there is no statute of limitations on crimes against humanity. The latest reaffirmation of this trend is the decision by a Spanish court to extradite an...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>parakkum</name>
        
    </author>
            <category term="Civil liberties" />
            <category term="South America" />
    
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        <![CDATA[<p>One of the brightest trends of our new millennium is the ongoing demonstration that there is <a href="http://www.hopeisnotaplan.com/2008/02/not_only_for_the_lives_of_the.html">no statute of limitations</a> on <a href="http://www.hopeisnotaplan.com/2007/12/sign_of_the_times.html">crimes against humanity</a>. The latest reaffirmation of this trend is the decision by a Spanish court to extradite an airline pilot who is alleged to have been involved in piloting "disappearance" flights during the time of military rule in Argentina.</p>

<p>If you're unfamiliar, these flights were used to "disappear" people who had in some way bothered the military junta in charge at the time. Individuals were taken, often drugged, and literally thrown out of aircraft over the open ocean.</p>

<p><i>Mr Poch was held during a short stopover at Valencia's Manises airport on 22 September, while flying an aircraft for Dutch Transavia airlines, a subsidiary of Air France-KLM.</i></p>

<p>This is the power of modern international awareness of these crimes -- those who are alleged to have committed them find themselves increasingly penned in if they want to avoid potential prosecution.</p>

<p><a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8466280.stm">BBC article</a></p>]]>
        
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<entry>
    <title>The business case for leaving China</title>
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    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://movabletypo.net/cgi-bin/mt/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=23/entry_id=6650" title="The business case for leaving China" />
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    <published>2010-01-13T17:54:53Z</published>
    <updated>2010-01-13T18:03:32Z</updated>
    
    <summary>The news coverage following Google&apos;s announcement that it may be forced to leave the Chinese market has focused heavily on the declaration by Google that they will no longer censor search results for users in China. This is a convenient...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>parakkum</name>
        
    </author>
            <category term="China" />
            <category term="Commerce" />
    
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        <![CDATA[<p>The news coverage following Google's announcement that it may be forced to leave the Chinese market has focused heavily on the declaration by Google that they will no longer censor search results for users in China. This is a convenient point of focus, and makes for easier story writing, but it doesn't cover the scope of the issues Google currently faces in China.</p>

<p>Or, briefly, there is a strong business case to disengage from the Chinese market if attacks on Google-hosted information are going to continue, possibly powered by the PRC government itself. Google is currently in the process of expanding its business beyond majority advertising (currently about 97% of its income) to enterprise and cloud computing style solutions. If a significant national entity is accessing Google's IP and the hosted content of Google users, this may damage the trust of current and future Google customers in the company's ability to provide safe, reliable, and most of all secure tools for their business and other needs.</p>

<p>Moving away from the ceding of censorship rights to the PRC is good, but Google's potential decision to leave the market altogether will necessarily be a consequence of their desire to ensure that they can provide secure services for customers in the rest of the world. Although a 30% market share in search in the PRC is impressive, that may well be worth trading off for the ability to expand their business in the rest of the world.</p>

<p><a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8455712.stm">BBC article</a></p>]]>
        
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<entry>
    <title>You dumb bastards</title>
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    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://movabletypo.net/cgi-bin/mt/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=23/entry_id=6643" title="You dumb bastards" />
    <id>tag:www.hopeisnotaplan.com,2010://23.6643</id>
    
    <published>2010-01-06T04:55:05Z</published>
    <updated>2010-01-06T05:02:07Z</updated>
    
    <summary>So what happens if a group of evangelicals travel to an already homophobic country and tell tall tales about a gay &quot;agenda,&quot; and the forced rape and recruiting of young men by &quot;the gays?&quot; A Ugandan politician puts forth a...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>parakkum</name>
        
    </author>
            <category term="Africa" />
            <category term="American politics" />
            <category term="Civil liberties" />
            <category term="Humanitarian" />
    
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        <![CDATA[<p>So what happens if a group of evangelicals travel to an already homophobic country and tell tall tales about a gay "agenda," and the forced rape and recruiting of young men by "the gays?"</p>

<p><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/04/world/africa/04uganda.html">A Ugandan politician puts forth a law calling for the death penalty for homosexuals.</a></p>

<p>Scott Lively, Caleb Lee Brundidge, and Don Schmierer had no idea that teaching about <i>how to make gay people straight, how gay men often sodomized teenage boys and how “the gay movement is an evil institution” whose goal is “to defeat the marriage-based society and replace it with a culture of sexual promiscuity"</i> might lead to negative consequences.</p>

<p>Genius.</p>

<p>Threatened with the loss of much of its foreign aid, the Ugandan government has indicated it might scale things back and only jail homosexuals for life.</p>

<p>Double genius.</p>

<p>Here in the States, our structure of government mitigates the damage caused by this horrendous, anti-Christian nonsense, but out there in the world, your donation of hate pays off with massive returns.</p>

<p><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/04/world/africa/04uganda.html">New York Times article</a>.</p>]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>Oil up, oil down</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.hopeisnotaplan.com/2009/12/oil_up_oil_down.html" />
    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://movabletypo.net/cgi-bin/mt/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=23/entry_id=6641" title="Oil up, oil down" />
    <id>tag:www.hopeisnotaplan.com,2009://23.6641</id>
    
    <published>2009-12-30T23:01:25Z</published>
    <updated>2009-12-30T23:14:00Z</updated>
    
    <summary>Sonangol, the state petrochemical company of Angola, has received a contract to manage the Qayara and Najmah fields in Iraq. These fields are the riskiest in Iraq, a risk reflected in relatively high per-barrel fees awarded to Sonangol. At the...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>parakkum</name>
        
    </author>
            <category term="Africa" />
            <category term="Iraq" />
    
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        <![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.sonangol.co.ao/wps/portal/ep">Sonangol</a>, the state petrochemical company of Angola, has received a contract to manage the Qayara and Najmah fields in Iraq. These fields are the riskiest in Iraq, a risk reflected in relatively high per-barrel fees awarded to Sonangol.</p>

<p>At the same time, a Dutch court has ruled that it has jurisdiction to take a contamination case from the Nigerian delta that is being leveled at <a href="http://www.shell.com/">Royal Dutch Shell</a>. Shell was naturally displeased:</p>

<p><i>"We believe there are good arguments on the basis of which the district court could have concluded that it lacks jurisdiction in respect of these purely Nigerian matters."</i></p>

<p>Although it's unsurprising that Shell made no comment on the actual allegations, it does feel just so intrinsically dodgy that they mainly just want to keep things out of a European court.</p>

<p>Finally, <a href="http://www.petrochina.com.cn/ptr/">PetroChina</a> has invested $1.7 billion in a 60% stake in two major Canadian <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_sands">oil sands</a> projects. This comes a little over a year after a deal that gave PetroChina's parent company a <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/29/world/middleeast/29iraq.html">management contract</a> for other Iraqi oil fields.</p>

<p><a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8435151.stm">BBC article about the Nineveh fields</a><br />
<a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8434736.stm">BBC article about the Shell suit</a><br />
<a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8434603.stm">BBC article about the PetroChina deal</a></p>]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>The two drunken participants will now shake hands and get new guns</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.hopeisnotaplan.com/2009/12/the_two_drunken_participants_w.html" />
    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://movabletypo.net/cgi-bin/mt/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=23/entry_id=6635" title="The two drunken participants will now shake hands and get new guns" />
    <id>tag:www.hopeisnotaplan.com,2009://23.6635</id>
    
    <published>2009-12-24T20:22:08Z</published>
    <updated>2009-12-30T19:57:07Z</updated>
    
    <summary>In the wake of the disastrous Georgia-Russia Summer war of 2008, Russia and Georgia have finally reached an agreement to re-open one of their few remaining border points. I say &quot;one of their few remainings&quot; as the de even-more facto...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>parakkum</name>
        
    </author>
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.hopeisnotaplan.com/">
        <![CDATA[<p>In the wake of the <a href="http://www.hopeisnotaplan.com/2008/12/it_doesnt_count_if_they_stoppe.html">disastrous Georgia-Russia Summer war</a> of 2008, Russia and Georgia have finally reached an agreement to <a href="http://english.aljazeera.net//news/europe/2009/12/20091224105058579504.html">re-open one of their few remaining border points</a>. I say "one of their few remainings" as the de even-more facto independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia has now limited the amount of direct contact between Russia and Georgia.</p>

<p>The Upper Lars checkpoint has been closed since 2006, most likely in retaliation over Georgian attempts to join NATO.</p>

<p>At the same time, Russian president Medvedev has announced that Russia will <A href="http://english.aljazeera.net//news/europe/2009/12/2009122413014484661.html">update its nuclear weapons</a>. The plan is to develop new missiles while remaining in accord with current nuclear weapons treaties between Russia and the United States. As a reporter from the Christian Science Monitor reports, this is an important update inasmuch as <i>"it is all it has got to defend itself with because its armed forces in general are a shambles."</i></p>

<p>Referring back to the Russian-Georgian war highlights the generalized failure of the Russian military, with some <a href="http://www.hopeisnotaplan.com/2009/07/fratricide.html">half of Russian air losses coming from their own ground forces</a>. Russian military doctrine and equipment has fared similarly poorly in client states such as Iraq, where the U.S. military has reliably rolled them up in short order. Given that analysts attribute the Russian victory in South Ossetia to the Ossetian irregulars, it's not surprising that Medvedev is looking for an enhancement to the Russian military that will bring prestige at the very least by dint of never, ever being tested.</p>]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>Rebellious tender</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.hopeisnotaplan.com/2009/12/rebellious_tender.html" />
    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://movabletypo.net/cgi-bin/mt/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=23/entry_id=6634" title="Rebellious tender" />
    <id>tag:www.hopeisnotaplan.com,2009://23.6634</id>
    
    <published>2009-12-24T19:28:34Z</published>
    <updated>2009-12-24T18:32:15Z</updated>
    
    <summary>The government of Iran has announced that it will, in early January, invalidate all money with revolutionary slogans written on it. Given the cash-only nature of Iran&apos;s economy, writing protest messages on paper money is quite clever. BBC article...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>parakkum</name>
        
    </author>
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.hopeisnotaplan.com/">
        <![CDATA[<p>The government of Iran has announced that it will, in early January, invalidate all money with revolutionary slogans written on it. Given the cash-only nature of Iran's economy, writing protest messages on paper money is quite clever.</p>

<p><a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8430162.stm">BBC article</a></p>]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>Health care through the senate</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.hopeisnotaplan.com/2009/12/health_care_through_the_senate.html" />
    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://movabletypo.net/cgi-bin/mt/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=23/entry_id=6633" title="Health care through the senate" />
    <id>tag:www.hopeisnotaplan.com,2009://23.6633</id>
    
    <published>2009-12-24T18:57:56Z</published>
    <updated>2009-12-24T18:09:51Z</updated>
    
    <summary>The Senate take on health care reform, HR3590, passed yesterday. Here&apos;s the final vote: ...which is roughly in line with polling on health care reform a few months back. More recent polling has shown that American desire for health care...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>parakkum</name>
        
    </author>
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.hopeisnotaplan.com/">
        <![CDATA[<p>The Senate take on health care reform, HR3590, passed yesterday. Here's the final vote:</p>

<p><img alt="HR3590vote.jpg" src="http://www.hopeisnotaplan.com/HR3590vote.jpg" width="431" height="528" /></p>

<p>...which is roughly in line with polling on health care reform a few months back. More recent polling has shown that American desire for health care reform has diminished. That's not particularly surprising in the wake of shrill shilling in the form of "death panel" claims and so forth. As we've seen in prior election and legislative voting cycles, American citizens can be convinced, given enough time and money, to vote against their own best interests.</p>

<p>There's already discussion of a Constitutional challenge, including during the debate. Legally, this seems unlikely to succeed if, as written, the health coverage requirement has been carried out under Congress's power to levy taxes. As I've also discussed previously, on a pure intent issue, health care assuredly fits the <a href="http://www.hopeisnotaplan.com/2009/08/to_provide_for_the_common_defe.html">Constitutional intent</a> to provide for the common defense and promote the general welfare.</p>

<p>The current position of the legislators of the Republican party seems to be one of rabidly defending corporations at the expense of their constituents, either intentionally or in the misguided belief that they are defending an ideology of self reliance (even while they try to secure Federal funding to keep businesses in America or maintain our farms) by letting insurance companies scalp random Americans. Shooting down a plan while offering no effective alternative is the marker of a failed employee.</p>

<p>They're just dragging the team down.</p>

<p><a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8429345.stm">BBC article</a></p>]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>Negotiation, after a fashion</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.hopeisnotaplan.com/2009/12/negotiation_after_a_fashion.html" />
    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://movabletypo.net/cgi-bin/mt/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=23/entry_id=6626" title="Negotiation, after a fashion" />
    <id>tag:www.hopeisnotaplan.com,2009://23.6626</id>
    
    <published>2009-12-16T20:05:13Z</published>
    <updated>2009-12-16T19:13:27Z</updated>
    
    <summary>The government of Vietnam has agreed to buy six Kilo submarines and possibly twelve more Sukhois (Su-30s) to augment the eight it already has. The deal would make Vietnam into one of the main clients of the Russian arms industry...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>parakkum</name>
        
    </author>
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.hopeisnotaplan.com/">
        <![CDATA[<p>The government of Vietnam has agreed to buy six Kilo submarines and possibly twelve more Sukhois (Su-30s) to augment the eight it already has. The deal would make Vietnam into one of the main clients of the Russian arms industry and, in the understated words of Carlyle Thayer of the Australian Defence Force Academy, <i>"would increase [Vietnam's] negotiating power in the maritime disputes"</i>.</p>

<p>Indeed.</p>

<p>Given the history between Vietnam and its larger neighbor, we can imagine that this acquisition might markedly shift the politics of the East Sea / South China Sea.</p>

<p>Fun fact - the People's Republic of China <a href="http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/kilo.htm">also buys Kilos from Russia</a>.</p>

<p>Do you suppose Russia has advisers ready to train crews on Kilo-on-Kilo combat?</p>

<p><a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8415380.stm">BBC article</a></p>]]>
        
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<entry>
    <title>Fear the onion, indeed</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.hopeisnotaplan.com/2009/11/fear_the_onion_indeed.html" />
    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://movabletypo.net/cgi-bin/mt/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=23/entry_id=6617" title="Fear the onion, indeed" />
    <id>tag:www.hopeisnotaplan.com,2009://23.6617</id>
    
    <published>2009-11-29T16:06:45Z</published>
    <updated>2009-11-29T15:25:59Z</updated>
    
    <summary>57% of voters in a recent Swiss referendum voted for the SVP-backed anti-minaret legislation, on the basis of this utterly sound logic from the SVP: &quot;Forced marriages and other things like cemeteries separating the pure and impure - we don&apos;t...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>parakkum</name>
        
    </author>
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.hopeisnotaplan.com/">
        <![CDATA[<p>57% of voters in a recent Swiss referendum voted for the <a href="http://www.hopeisnotaplan.com/2009/11/fear_the_onion_switzerland.html">SVP-backed anti-minaret legislation</a>, on the basis of this utterly sound logic from the SVP:</p>

<p><I>"Forced marriages and other things like cemeteries separating the pure and impure - we don't have that in Switzerland, and we do not want to introduce it," Ulrich Schlueer, co-president of the Initiative Committee to ban minarets, said.</p>

<p>"Therefore, there's no room for minarets in Switzerland."</i></p>

<p>Indeed, Switzerland prefers to separate the pure and impure, or let's say the white and non-white, by having a harsh naturalization policy that lets individual neighborhoods vote with their racism and keep even third-generation residents from becoming citizens.</p>

<p>This continues the ongoing European trend of <a href="http://www.hopeisnotaplan.com/2007/10/hint_dont_do_this.html">just not</a> <a href="http://www.hopeisnotaplan.com/2008/03/tribalism_rears_its_head_right.html">getting it</a> on the issue of addressing immigrants and any potential problems associated with them. More divisiveness and exclusion is a sure-fire path to generating more problems. Of course, the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiss_People%27s_Party">SVP</a> and their British co-racists in the <a href="http://bnp.org.uk/">BNP</a> aren't concerned about inciting problems that might, in turn, lead to fear that will lead to reduced immigration. One might even guess that's their entire point.</p>

<p>Humorously, the BNP site currently says that they are "the only party which opposes mass immigration...". Good for you, guys. All I can say about mass immigration is that I live in California, and our economy is nearly as large as the U.K.'s with just half the population of your nation. We seem to be doing fine with our immigrants.</p>

<p>When they aren't trying to keep those scary foreigners out, the SVP spends its time <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews/idUSTHO15017420090221">being angry at the United States</a> for pursuing tax evaders with accounts in Swiss banks.</p>

<p><a href="http://english.aljazeera.net/news/europe/2009/11/2009112915164769444.html">al Jazeera article</a><br />
<a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8385069.stm">BBC article</a></p>]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>Bombing the Nevsky</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.hopeisnotaplan.com/2009/11/bombing_the_nevsky.html" />
    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://movabletypo.net/cgi-bin/mt/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=23/entry_id=6614" title="Bombing the Nevsky" />
    <id>tag:www.hopeisnotaplan.com,2009://23.6614</id>
    
    <published>2009-11-28T15:34:52Z</published>
    <updated>2009-11-28T15:02:10Z</updated>
    
    <summary>It&apos;s being reported today by the FSB that the derailing of the Nevsky Express in Novgorod was caused by an explosive placed on the tracks. This parallels a 2007 incident in which the same line was derailed by a similar...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>parakkum</name>
        
    </author>
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.hopeisnotaplan.com/">
        <![CDATA[<p>It's being reported today by the <a href="http://ftp.fas.org/irp/world/russia/fsb/index.html">FSB</a> that the derailing of the Nevsky Express in Novgorod was caused by an explosive placed on the tracks. This parallels a 2007 incident in which the same line was derailed by a similar IED.</p>

<p>The first Nevsky bombing was recently officially attributed to <a href="http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/level2.html?NewsID=13994957&PageNum=0">Ingush insurgents</a>. Of course, as we've <a href="http://www.hopeisnotaplan.com/2007/10/rounding_up_suspects_as_needed.html">already seen</a>, the list of suspects rounded up for a given crime in Russia does not necessarily have much relation to any evidence related to the crime.</p>

<p>Nonetheless, it wouldn't be shocking to image a Chechen or Ingushetian face behind bombing on a Russian rail line.</p>

<p><a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8383960.stm">BBC article</a><br />
<a href="http://english.aljazeera.net/news/europe/2009/11/20091128131222771215.html">al Jazeera article</a><br />
<a href="http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/level2.html?NewsID=14581574&PageNum=0">ITAR-TASS article</a></p>]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>Fear the onion, Switzerland!</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.hopeisnotaplan.com/2009/11/fear_the_onion_switzerland.html" />
    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://movabletypo.net/cgi-bin/mt/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=23/entry_id=6601" title="Fear the onion, Switzerland!" />
    <id>tag:www.hopeisnotaplan.com,2009://23.6601</id>
    
    <published>2009-11-08T08:01:56Z</published>
    <updated>2009-11-08T07:06:54Z</updated>
    
    <summary>Swiss Muslims have held an &quot;open mosque&quot; event ahead of a vote proposed by the Swiss People&apos;s Party that would ban the building of minarets in Switzerland, on the basis of their being a &apos;symbol of Muslim political power.&apos; This...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>parakkum</name>
        
    </author>
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.hopeisnotaplan.com/">
        <![CDATA[<p>Swiss Muslims have held an "open mosque" event ahead of a vote proposed by the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiss_People%27s_Party">Swiss People's Party</a> that would ban the building of minarets in Switzerland, on the basis of their being a 'symbol of Muslim political power.'</p>

<p>This is, of course, the same Swiss People's Party that produced this entirely unoffensive poster about how dark people are going to murder white people.</p>

<p><img alt="Spp-poster.jpg" src="http://www.hopeisnotaplan.com/Spp-poster.jpg" width="312" height="149" /></p>

<p>Oh, wait, that's about how immigrants are a problem. Or something.</p>

<p>Given that Switzerland is already the land of alienation, where multi-generation families of non-European origin continue to not be welcomed as citizens, the SVP's attempted move feels superfluous at best. The BBC analysis suggests the vote is unlikely to pass, but it's yet another move made by people who don't understand that they won't get what they want by following their current plan.</p>

<p><a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8348279.stm">BBC article</a></p>]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>Take your pick of threats</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.hopeisnotaplan.com/2009/11/take_your_pick_of_threats.html" />
    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://movabletypo.net/cgi-bin/mt/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=23/entry_id=6599" title="Take your pick of threats" />
    <id>tag:www.hopeisnotaplan.com,2009://23.6599</id>
    
    <published>2009-11-05T20:09:55Z</published>
    <updated>2009-11-05T19:16:10Z</updated>
    
    <summary>At a rally today in favor of voting against their own self interest, a subset of Republicans were treated to this intellectually sound analysis from John Boehner: &quot;This bill is the greatest threat to freedom that I&apos;ve seen in the...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>parakkum</name>
        
    </author>
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.hopeisnotaplan.com/">
        <![CDATA[<p>At a rally today in favor of voting against their own self interest, a subset of Republicans were treated to <A href="http://tpmlivewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/11/boehner-health-care-greatest-threat-to-freedom-ive-seen-in-last-19-years.php?ref=mp">this intellectually sound analysis from John Boehner</a>:</p>

<p><i>"This bill is the greatest threat to freedom that I've seen in the 19 years I've been in Washington," he said. </i></p>

<p>Really?</p>

<p>Contenders for that crown in the last 19 years surely include al Qaeda, Saddam Hussein, warrantless wiretapping, a resurgent Russia, and many others. Is Boehner really contending that a debate over the specifics of how Americans can have sufficient health care is a bigger threat to our freedom than having a dedicated group of terrorists attempting to kill us en masse? If so, he's changing the goal posts significantly from the prior Republican core message.</p>

<p>Maybe we can <a href="http://johnboehner.house.gov/">ask him about it</a>.</p>

<p>Incidentally, it turns out that the proposed alternative plan will <a href="http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/11/republican-health-insurance-reform-bill-insures-almost-nobody.php?ref=mp">cover fewer people</a>, which is what I suspected when I heard Boehner waffling about it on CNN Sunday morning.</p>]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>Tracking Iranian influence</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.hopeisnotaplan.com/2009/11/tracking_iranian_influence.html" />
    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://movabletypo.net/cgi-bin/mt/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=23/entry_id=6597" title="Tracking Iranian influence" />
    <id>tag:www.hopeisnotaplan.com,2009://23.6597</id>
    
    <published>2009-11-05T17:51:43Z</published>
    <updated>2009-11-05T16:54:03Z</updated>
    
    <summary>This has been an interesting week in terms of local concerns about attempts by the Iranian government to influence the state of affairs in nearby nations in the middle east. First, we have the seizure by the Israeli government of...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>parakkum</name>
        
    </author>
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.hopeisnotaplan.com/">
        <![CDATA[<p>This has been an interesting week in terms of local concerns about attempts by the Iranian government to influence the state of affairs in nearby nations in the middle east.</p>

<p>First, we have the seizure by the Israeli government of a cargo ship carrying a significant supply of arms, ostensibly from Iran to Syria, presumably with the longer-term goal of supporting Hezbollah in Lebanon. Curiously enough, rather than claim some other purpose for the arms, or that they have nothing to do with them, the official Iranian government position borders on insisting that the arms are not, in fact, weapons.</p>

<p><i>In Tehran, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki held a joint news conference with his visiting Syrian counterpart Walid Muallem and dismissed the Israeli allegations.</p>

<p>Mr Muallem said: "Unfortunately, some official pirates in the seas, sometimes in the name of the navy, sometimes in the name of inspection, obstruct trade movement between Syria and Iran.</p>

<p>"This ship does not carry Iranian weapons to Syria and does not contain military material to manufacture weapons in Syria. This ship carries imported goods from Syria to Iran." </i></p>

<p>Both this Iranian and the associated Syrian statement don't quite say that the arms aren't arms, but come awfully close. Unless one believes that the Israeli government staged the fairly extensive video of the ship's contents, however, they're pretty clearly weapons (interestingly, weapons with Spanish-language labeling, at least in the portions I've seen covered on video).</p>

<p>More on the claims and denials can be found in <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8343673.stm">this BBC article</a> and <a href="http://english.aljazeera.net//news/middleeast/2009/11/200911543526356307.html">this al Jazeera article</a>.</p>

<p>While Israel worries about Iranian government influence in Lebanon, the government of Saudia Arabia may well have pressured <a href="http://www.nilesat.com.eg/">Nilesat</a> and <a href="http://www.arabsat.com/Pages/Default.aspx">Arabsat</a> to <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8343137.stm">take Iran's Arabic language station off the air</a>, following concerns about reporting by Al-Alam on Shia insurgents in Yemen that included language suggesting Saudi Arabia is involved. The Saudi government may be especially sensitive here following a <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8341875.stm">Zaidi insurgent raid into Saudi Arabia</a>.</p>

<p>We have to imagine that there will not at any point in all this be a Saudi-Israeli anti-Iranian pact (although SIAIP is a cute acronym).</p>]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>

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