Hope is not a plan

I'm currently reading the Thomas Ricks book, Fiasco: The American Military Adventure in Iraq. Among many of those described in its pages who pushed very, very hard for a war in Iraq, Paul Wolfowitz is a real standout. He believed that not only was an attack on Iraq necessary, we would be greeted as liberators, and American troop levels could be dropped to something on the order of 30,000 soldiers within months of the invasion.

I heard a discussion last month in which a speaker said that Wolfowitz would emerge as the "true tragic figure" of the Iraq story, because he (Wolfowitz) honestly believed in what he was doing.

Not so.

A tragic figure not only believes what they're doing, but does their best with what they know at the time.

In contrast, Wolfowitz ignored fact-based thinking and preferred to live in -- to adapt from Rommel -- cloud cuckoo land.

When General Shinseki was called on to develop a speculative plan for an invasion of Iraq, his troop level estimates for post-invasion Iraq were, quite reasonably, based on troop levels that had succeeded in keeping the peace in ethnically torn Bosnia. That was one soldier per fifty people. In Iraq, after ruling out the relatively peaceful Kurdish territories, this would have meant about 300,000 soldiers, or ten times the number Wolfowitz was writing in his dream journal every night.

Called on to testify on likely occupation needs just months before the invasion, Shinseki decided to reach farther back in history and looked at troop levels used in the occupations of postwar Germany and Japan. Based on these levels, the estimate for Iraq was 260,000 soldiers. Once again, much, much higher than what Wolfowitz had in mind.

What did Paul have to say about this?

"Some of the higher end predictions that we have been hearing recently, such as the notion that it will take several hundred thousand U.S. troops to provide stability in post-Saddam Iraq, are wildly off the mark." His reasoning, he explained, was that "it is hard to conceive that it would take more forces to provide stability in post-Saddam Iraq than it would take to conduct the war itself and secure the surrender of Saddam's security forces and his army -- hard to imagine." (from Fiasco, pp. 97-98)

That was it. It was hard, for him, to imagine. Despite the evidence from Bosnia. More importantly, despite the exact same estimates coming from the postwar occupations of Germany and Japan, two ethnically homogenous nations that did not offer widespread partisan resistance after the war. One would imagine that a man who saw such a profound link between World War II and Iraq would have been able to see that, as well.

One might also imagine that a military theorist such as Wolfowitz could see that the U.S. might well induce Iraqi regular army forces to surrender solely by precision-bombing them into paste. Our ability to destroy and demoralize the regular army, and to force the regime into hiding, was never an issue (though even then, the "light and fast" approach pushed by Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz indubitably did more harm than good, even in the initial invasion).

Wolfowitz refused to run the numbers when they got in the way of his imagination. His involvement is a tragedy, but he is no tragic figure. Just a negligent philosopher responsible for widespread chaos and death.

BBC: Nine US servicemen killed in Iraq

Slow news day so far.

Quite a bit of reporting and discussion followed last week's revelation that Rumsfeld had, after several years of abject failure, decided that maybe a policy change was needed in Iraq. He included recommendations he liked, as well as those he found more distasteful.

But honestly, it was more of the same old crap.

Consider this quote from the memo (as quoted by the BBC):

The memo also suggests "beginning with modest withdrawals of US and coalition forces... so Iraqis know they have to pull up their socks, step up and take responsibility for their country".

"...have to pull up their socks, step up and take responsibility..."

That's it, really. The Iraqis are a bunch of children, who, as a group, are irresponsible and refuse to try and help because we're around. As if patriotic Iraqi men weren't still signing up for the security forces, despite the regularity with which busloads of recruits are kidnapped and executed. This comment, just on its own, stands up as a glaring example of the type of irresponsible, fairy-tale-driven thinking that Rumsfeld uses. Think of the old "We need to have a smaller, faster military" idea. Did he model whether that would work or not? No. It's not about reasoning, it's about a near-dogmatic belief in an idea, with an utter terror of subjecting that idea to rational analysis.

The memo above is pure conjecture, of the worst and most irresponsible sort. What if, instead, we had seen this:

"Studies on Iraqi culture and subsequent wargaming indicate that a drawdown in American military presence would lead to a temporary spike in violence, followed within 4-6 months by increased security and a normalization of relations between official government actors and local militias."

I made that up, of course. I have no idea whether modeling suggests that's what would happen -- because our current leaders do not believe in modeling, or evidence-based analysis, or historical analogy. They just believe.

The problem is that Rumsfeld's beliefs do not shield our soldiers from snipers, RPGs and IEDs.

Better that he fulfill that role in person. That, as nothing else has, might have forced him to temper his beliefs with reality.

The BBC coverage on the memo

Showing today (and then over and over again this week) on al Hurra, the American Arabic-language news station:

Messing With Heads

Think smoking pot is a harmless pastime? Think again. According to the latest scientific research, it can cause psychosis, schizophrenia, depression and anxiety disorders. And worryingly, teenagers - the people who indulge most – are those most at risk. In this eye opening documentary, young users now being treated for psychosis speak candidly about their experiences.

Good grief. Why are we wasting our air time trying to propagate American anti-drug culture into the Arab world? Is it all a clever ploy to convince radical Islamists that we, too, are a bunch of controlling fundamentalists?

Actually, I'd feel a lot of respect for the producers at al Hurra if that's the goal, as it's one area where official American national policy coincides well with radical Islamist beliefs.

If you're curious and speak Arabic (or just want to watch video in a language you don't understand), some of the programs produced by al Hurra can be downloaded from their website.

Added note: Unsurprisingly, the drug problem in Iraq is not centered on pot. Of all the things one might produce in-country or smuggle across the borders, pot would probably be the most difficult (that said, people are doing it). Instead, most of the abused drugs are either pills or non-pharmaceutical solvents (e.g. sniffing glue). I would think that the dangers of sniffing glue -- which definitely will cause brain damage -- would be good to publicize on al Hurra.

IRIN article
BBC article

I just emailed al Hurra to ask them about their choice of coverage in this case.

Following the loss of several towns to rebels from the Union of Democratic Forces for Unity, the government of the Central African Republic asked the French (former colonial rulers of the area) for assistance. The French government offered logistical support to the army of the CAR. In this case, "logistical support" apparently translates into "air strikes," as French aircraft hit rebels near the town of Birao.

From the BBC story:

Under bilateral accords, France's military provides logistical and intelligence support to some of its former colonies in Africa.

The UFDR rebels say they are fighting against corruption and mismanagement under President Francois Bozize, who seized power in a 2003 coup.

The IRIN story
The BBC story

Friction between Russia and its neighbors -- all components of the former Soviet Union -- continues.

Georgian forces detained two Russian "peacekeepers" in South Ossetia, accusing them of smuggling. They were later released as a "manifestation of goodwill." Showing less goodwill, Russia held Manana Dzhabelia, a diabetic Georgian woman, for two months pending deportation. Unfortunately, she died in custody, the second such death since Russia began expelling ethnic Georgians. She is said to have not received proper medical care while being held.

Meanwhile, U.S. undersecretary of state for political affairs Nicholas Burns has called for Russia to withdraw its remaining troops from both Georgia and Moldova, and to keep out of internal conflicts in neighboring states. In response, Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov called for an avoidance of "politicized solutions" to these problems.

Fifteen members of a Shia religious foundation (the Shia Endowment) killed by gunmen in Northern Baghdad.

Sixteen people killed by a triple car bombing near a gas station in Southwest Baghdad.

Two killed by a car bomb in the Shia neighborhood of Amil.

Two killed by a mortar attack on a Baghdad market.

One American soldier killed during an ambush on a convoy.

Two Iraqi soldiers killed by a roadside bomb in the Sunni Yarmouk district.

BBC article
al Jazeera article

Russia's ambassador to Serbia has stated that Russia will use its veto power to block any U.N. settlement on the status of Kosovo if that settlement is unsuitable for either party involved:

“In case the status solution is not acceptable to both sides — both Belgrade and Pristina — the Russian side will use its veto power,” Alekseyev was quoted as saying.

Or, translated, "We're going to keep Kosovo from separating from Serbia, because the government of Serbia doesn't want that to happen."

Also:

Serbian officials repeatedly have said they count on Russia’s veto in the Security Council to prevent Kosovo independence, but Alexeyev comments to B92 mark the first time a Russian official confirmed such a possibility. There was no immediate comment from Moscow.

Russia in the past has urged both sides to find a negotiated settlement and warned against one-sided solutions. Moscow fears that Kosovo independence could set a precedent for Russian-backed separatist regions in the former Soviet Union.

MosNews story

Five American soldiers killed during fighting in Anbar province.

Five American soldiers killed by a roadside bomb near Kirkuk.

Ten people killed by a mortar attack in the cental Midan district in Baghdad.

Four people killed by a suicide bomber in Sadr City.

One person (the driver) killed during an attack in western Baghdad on the car of Brigadier General Muhsin al-Yassri, the security chief for the Higher Education Ministry (the chief was critically injured).

Ali Hussein al-Daiyan, a general from Hussein's regime, killed by gunmen in Ghazaliya.

School principal Sadiq Ali Jassim killed by gunmen in Jihad.

Four people killed by a bombing in Iskandariya.

Forty-five bodies found in various parts of Baghdad, all shot.

CNN article
al Jazeera article

One more American soldier reported killed on Wednesday, in Ramadi, Anbar province.

One American soldier died from wounds received a day earlier in Anbar province.

Twelve people killed in Ramadi.

Two police officers killed by a car bomb in Fallujah.

One bystander girl killed in Mosul.

Professor Mohammed Haidar Sulaiman killed by gunmen in Mosul.

al-Harith Abdul-Hamid, director of the Baghdad University psychology center, killed on the way to work.

One person killed by a car bomb in the Baghdad neighborhood of Karrada.

Police Colonel Mudim Abdullah and two guards killed in eastern Baghdad.

One person killed by a drive-by shooting in Diyala province.

One police officer killed by a roadside bomb in Diyala province.

35 bodies found, blindfolded and shot, in various parts of Baghdad.

Reporting today from the AP.

Faced with pandemic HIV/AIDS in Africa, it's easy for a lot of people, especially Americans, to take a moralistic stance and assume that everyone "over there" is just being promiscuous. "If we could just teach them abstinence..."

Of course, the truth is everyone already gets the concept of abstinence. Your kids who are off hooking up when you think they're at the mall get it. The you who hooked up without your parents knowing (and about whom you've conveniently forgotten now that you are a parent) gets it.

As it happens, that's probably not so much the problem in Africa. In fact, it's almost certainly not, since a recent survey of 59 countries by researchers from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine showed that Westerners are far more likely to have multiple partners than Africans.

In a study in this week's issue of Science magazine, Abu-Raddad et al have modeled the effects of a known interaction between malaria and HIV and determined that each makes the other one much worse. During episodes of malarial fever, HIV viral loads spike by almost ten-fold, and it's been previously shown that the chance of spreading the infection directly relates to this viral load. HIV, in turn, beats the immune system down and makes one more susceptible to infections such as malaria. Abu-Raddad et al modeled this outcome and showed that, in the Kisumu district of Kenya (population 200,000), this HIV-malaria interaction has probably, since 1980, led to an additional 8,500 HIV cases and a whopping additional 980,000 malaria cases.

You can read the Science article here, and the BBC overview article here.

Intuitively, it makes sense that conditions that lead to immune cell proliferation would increase HIV viral load. Given that, the researchers are now looking for additional interactions between HIV and other endemic Africa diseases (of which there are quite a few).

So, it's not promiscuity. Instead, the spread of HIV in Africa has likely been powered by co-infection, inadequate detection, gender imbalances in power, inadequate education, and out-and-out lies such as those propagated by Michael Hart Jones and South African Health Minister Manto Tshabalala-Msimang.

South Korean prosecutors have indicted five people on charges of spying for North Korea.

Which didn't stop South and North Korea from announcing their joint bid to host the 2014 Winter Olympics in Pyongchang.

Hm.

Eight people killed by a car bomb near al-Abbas shrine in Karbala.

Three people killed by a car bomb in Mosul.

Two people killed by a mortar attack in the Shia suburb of Kadhimiya in Baghdad.

Four people killed by gunmen in a series of attacks in Baquba.

al Jazeera article
BBC article

Five Shia men, brothers, shot in their home in Jihad, Baghdad.

A Shia man and his three sons also shot in their home in Jihad.

Five people killed in fights between Shia militias and Sunni Janabi tribesmen in neighborhood of Al-Amil.

Nine people killed in Diyala province, including a police officer and two children.

A professor and student killed in Ramadi during an attack on a police patrol.

A hospital security guard killed in Tikrit.

A barber killed in Kirkuk.

Sixty bodies found, tortured and shot, in Baghdad.

al Jazeera article

Four American soldiers killed by roadside bombs in Baghdad.

One police officer killed by a suicide car bombing in Dora, southern Baghdad.

One student killed by a roadside car bomb near al-Maamoun college in western Baghdad.

One person killed by another bombing in Baghdad.

Four people killed by mortar attacks in Baghdad.

Colonel Yaarub Khazaal, working security for Ahmed Chalabi, killed by gunmen in Yarmouk, western Baghdad.

Fifty-one bodies found, all shot, in Baghdad.

Reporting from the AP and the BBC.

Three Marines killed fighting in Anbar province.

Seventy Shia day laborers killed by dual car bombs in Tayaran Square in central Baghdad.

Associated Press Television Network cameraman Aswan Ahmed Lutfallah killed by gunfire in Mosul.

Five people killed and thirteen bodies found in Baquba.

BBC article
al Jazeera article
AP reporting

(As a note, it's a given that deaths are underreported, especially in whatever news makes it to the international level, but when a major attack occurs, that tends to push all the smaller, "incidental" violence off the screen.)

The situation in Somalia remains on edge, as the de facto government, the Islamic Courts Union in Mogadishu, presses for Ethiopia to withdraw its troops from the area, and continues active battling with troops supporting the official government.

In the past month, the UN has voted for an American-backed measure that would authorize mobilization of peacekeeping forces from the Intergovernmental Authority on Development and the African Union, as well as lifting of an arms embargo so that the official government of Somalia can re-arm itself.

In the meantime, Islamic Courts troops are trying, not always successfully, to fight their way toward the interim government in Baidoa.

Now the Union has given Ethiopia an ultimatum, saying that Ethiopian troops must leave Somalia within a week, or be attacked.

Seven Iraqi soldiers killed by dual truck suicide bombings of an army base in Riyadh, northern Iraq.

Ten people killed by a car bombing near the Shia al-Kamaliyah mosque in eastern Baghdad.

Five people killed by a pair of car bombs near the Sunni al-Samuri mosque in southern Baghdad.

A police officer killed by a bombing.

A mother and two children killed by a mortar attack in Hawija.

Nine members of a Shia family, including children, killed by gunmen south of Baghdad.

Five people killed in Baquba.

Three people killed elsewhere in Iraq.

A note on casualty reporting from the BBC:

Mass casualty attacks get more attention, but reality is that the violence is going on all the time, claiming an estimated 120 lives a day in Baghdad, the BBC's Andrew North says.

There are now at least 50-60 violent incident a day in the capital, our correspondent says.

al Jazeera article

A common deflection tactic used by some promoters of the war in Iraq is to point out that Hussein was a tyrant, and did cruel things to his people. True as this is, I term it a deflection because the case for war was not based on humanitarian issues (and if we were people who regularly invaded countries over humanitarian issues, then we should already have invaded Sudan, North Korea and several others).

Deflection or no, I think a supporter of the war could make a strong case for "it was all worth it even though the basis was false" if things were better for people within Iraq now.

But that's not the case, and they certainly know it. In a survey of 2,000 Iraqis conducted by the Iraq Centre for Research and Strategic Studies, 95% of respondents indicated they think the security situation in Iraq has deteriorated since the U.S. invasion. They're right -- over a hundred people are killed every day as a consequence of sectarian violence, and the government of Syria estimates that they have 800,000 Iraqi refugees on their hands (with more coming daily).

It's not better, even given that what came before was very bad.

al Jazeera article

The US and the UK are considering enforcing a no-fly zone over the Darfur area in Sudan, if UN forces are not allowed to deploy in that area.

How much this matters depends on how much air support is helping the genocide, and how much force people on the ground can muster to defend themselves.

As far as the former goes, I was able to find Human Rights Watch reports detailing helicopter attacks on aid camps in 2002 and active Janjaweed camps as of 2004, many of which included facilities to support aircraft. Sudanwatch points to Reuters reports indicating use of gunships against civilians as late as 2005.

For force on the ground...here the situation diverges from our other no-fly-zone experience, Iraq. Whereas the Kurds were able to build up a ground force that could effectively stand off the regular Iraqi army, I don't see where the civilian population in Darfur is going to find arms of any kind, such that it can put up an effective defense against the combined efforts of the Janjaweed and the government of Sudan. Without that, a no-fly zone just slows the killing, rather than stopping it.

al Jazeera article

One Iraqi soldier and one civilian killed by a suicide car bombing at a Baghdad checkpoint.

One Iraqi soldier killed by a roadside bomb in Musayyib.

Two department of interior commandos killed by a roadside bomb in Samarra.

A mixed Shia and Sunni group of thirty (or perhaps many more) people kidnapped in Sanak in Baghdad. Twenty-five Shiites later released, suggesting a "gill-netting" operation designed to pick up Sunnis, with incidental Shiites captured.

Seventeen bodies, tortured and shot, found in Wahda in Wasit province.

Forty-five bodies found, tortured and shot, across Baghdad.

Three bodies found southwest of Baghdad.

A guard killed at a Shiite boys' school in southwetern Baghdad.

Two people killed by gunmen northeast of Baghdad.

A police officer killed in Mosul.

Two police explosives experts killed trying to defuse a car bomb in Sadr City, Baghdad.

BBC article
CNN article
AP reporting

The quarterly report Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq indicates that an average of 959 attacks per week -- that's over 130 a day -- occurred between August 12 and November 10 of this year.

From the BBC article:

This constituted a 22% increase in attacks and a 2% jump in civilian casualties, compared to the three previous months.

Most casualties were Iraqi, despite the fact that 68% of the attacks targeted US-led coalition troops.

From the al Jazeera article:

These figures could underestimate the bloodshed as the defence department's figures exclude most attacks, as the Iraq Study Group report noted.

"There is significant under-reporting of the violence in Iraq," the Iraq Study Group said.

In a classic case of failiing to listen to quality work from our own people, the Bush administration has been insisting for quite some time that their (very low) casualty figures for Iraqi civilians are correct. After disregarding the Burnham estimate of 600,000 violent deaths and glossing over the declaration of 150,000 dead by Health Minister Ali al-Shemari, President Bush and colleagues can now achieve a brilliant trifecta by ignoring this conclusion from the Iraq Study Group.

On a more general note, violence in Iraq has, for some reason, shifted out of news coverage in the last several days. Given its continuous nature, I'm not clear why all three of al Jazeera, the BBC, and CNN have failed to report anything -- even appended to other articles on Iraq, as they sometimes do. The AP has been similarly quiet.

The BBC article
al Jazeera article

One marine killed in Anbar province (sixty-one American soldiers have been killed so far in December).

An Iraqi army captain killed outside his home in Diwaniyah.

Two people killed by mortars in southern Baghdad.

Two people killed by a roadside bomb in Baghdad.

Three children killed by mortars near Baquba.

Two police officers killed by insurgents in Baquba.

A student killed by a drive-by shooting in Mosul.

Fifteen bodies turned in at the Baquba morgue, one of them of an Iraqi soldier.

Seven bodies turned in at the Kut morgue.

Fifty-three bodies found in Baghdad, many tortured.

AP picked up the reporting slack today.

Eleven people killed by a suicide car bombing in Baghdad.

BBC article

Once again, reporting has been nearly absent today.

...and not in the good way.

President Bush says that we need to expand the military, and he's considering the possibility of increasing troop strength in Iraq.

Like a child, Bush runs things his way as long as he can, ignoring valuable advice given by experts in the field. Only a severe time out in the form of the congressional defeat of his party, gave him sufficient pause to start this half-assed attempt to change his plan.

But despite talking about "hard choices" and his usual return to the concept of sacrifice, Bush is mainly running his same old game. This week he signed the Tax Relief and Health Care Act of 2006 into law. When this is mentioned in the next election cycle, keep in mind that Bush is buying your affections very cheaply -- the average savings to you individually amount to just $99.33, and it will cost our country $45 billion over the next decade.

Wouldn't it be wonderful to have $45 billion to spend on supporting our soldiers? Because for every four households getting a new tax break each year, one more American soldier doesn't get body armor. It's not such a pretty tax cut after all.

Someone should perhaps remind Bush, again, that in every war we ever won, we raised taxes. If he's not serious about this war, he probably shouldn't have started it.

Al Qaeda in Iraq (a title as unwieldy as "West Coast Avengers") has offered the U.S. the ridiculous "option" of leaving the country, additionally abandoning all heavy miltiary equipment so that a new, Islamic state can use it as the foundation for a new army.

I've mentioned before some potential motivations underlying unreasonable demands, including genuine failure of comprehension and the desire to place the recipient in an untenable position. There's a third option, epitomized by this fairly silly style of declaration -- the need for attention.

The need for attention is both an organizational and a very personal motivation. As much as Bush attempts to pin the sectarian violence in Iraq on Al Qaeda, the truth is that it's sectarian violence for its own sake. As such, al Qaeda in Iraq is overshadowed, and really isn't in charge of the violence. It makes a bid for relevancy by asserting that it has founded an Islamic state in the heart of Iraq, and by acting as if it had the wherewithal to make a large nation not only leave, but leave and equip it with a standing military.

Any organization that makes a routine task of bombing its own civilians is a mix of True Believers and people who were going to do bad things anyway -- in the U.S., they might the ones working up to poisoning their neighbors, or making bomb threats to their workplace. It's the member of this second group who will drive the personal side of the need for attention. As they lose their front-page status and their organization merges with the background noise in Iraq, they lose their special place of perceived personal power. Divorced from the concept of organizational relevancy, they probably just need to be perceived as a power and a threat to feel worthwhile.

The real joke of all of this is that there's already a historical example for what happens when a revolutionary, Islamic power finds itself with a truckload of American equipment -- it can't maintain it.

One American soldier killed west of Baghdad.

Three marines and a sailor killed in fighting in Anbar province.

"Dozens" of bodies found in Baghdad.

BBC article
CNN article

Two American soldiers killed in twin roadside bombings south of Baghdad.

Seven police officers killed by a suicide bombing in Muqdadiya, Diyala.

Five people killed in Samawah.

The body of an Iraqi military officer found in Diwaniya, along with the body of a member of the facilities protection force.

CNN article
al Jazeera article
AP reporting

There was some discussion last week of enforcing a no-fly zone over Darfur. One factor in deciding whether this is worthwhile is whether or not aircraft are in use in the area; Sudanwatch and Human Rights Watch certainly think they are.

Rebel forces in Darfur definitely assert there are, as they claim to have shot down two helicopters. Naturally, the government contests this:

In a separate statement, Esam el-Din Hajj, a Darfur rebel official, said his fighters had shot down two army helicopters during the clashes.

An army spokesman confirmed heavy fighting with the National Redemption Front (NRF), but denied that the attack on the village or that any aircraft had been shot down.

He said: "We did not use any helicopters or planes during the clashes so of course they could not shoot them down.

Given prior evidence of aircraft actually being under the control of the Janjaweed militias, the army spokesman here may be working a bit of verbal deflection: We did not use any helicopters or planes (but the Janjaweed might...)

It seems like two recently downed helicopters could potentially provide good, physical evidence of the use of aircraft in the area. I wonder if AU or UN forces will get a chance to look at them.

About a thousand miles to the east, Ethiopia has recently admitted that it does have military forces operating in Somalia, including aircraft. The UN estimates Ethiopia has 8,000 troops in Somalia, while "military experts" cited by CNN estimate 15-20,000 troops. Notably, Eritrea is estimated to have 2,000 troops supported the Islamic Courts Union.

President Bush, from his latest press conference:

Q Thank you, Mr. President. Mr. President, Lyndon Johnson famously didn't sleep during the Vietnam War, questioning his own decisions. You have always seemed very confident of your decisions, but I can't help but wonder if this has been a time of painful realization for you as you, yourself, have acknowledged that some of the policies you hoped would succeed have not. And I wonder if you can talk to us about that. Has it been a painful time?

We'll accomplish our objective; we've got to constantly adjust our tactics to do so. We've got to insist that the Iraqis take more responsibility more quickly in order to do so.

According to Iraqi Interior Minister Jawad Bolani, 12,000 Iraqi police officers have died since 2003.

That's more than one in sixteen Iraqi cops who've been killed. That's 6.3% of everyone who's signed up to be a cop since the invasion, or roughly 2% per year. The single most dangerous job in America -- fisherman -- had a fatality rate of 0.118% this year, or about twenty times less than being a police officer in Iraq.

In contrast, 270 American police officers have died from violence since 2003. That's 0.09 per 100,000 people, versus 44.8 per 100,000 people in Iraq (that is, the violent death rate for police is 498 TIMES HIGHER in Iraq).

More responsibility. Right.

American police figures taken from The Officer Down Memorial Page. Even those numbers are disheartening.

Three Iraqi police officers killed by a suicide bomber near a university in Ramadi.

Ten people killed by a car bombing in Jadida, western Baghdad.

Two people killed by a suicide bomber in Talbyia in northeastern Baghdad.

al Jazeera article
BBC article

(The BBC article adds this note: At least 100 people are killed on average every day in Baghdad, many of them in sectarian attacks, correspondents say.)

The GAO's report on Transportation-Disadvantaged Populations came out this month. It opens with this precious line:

The evacuation of New Orleans in response to Hurricane Katrina was considered relatively successful for people with their own vehicles;

It then goes on to note that the 100,000 people without their own vehicles had a hell of a time getting out. Key points from the report:

• Private transportation providers may feel constrained by liability concerns
• 12% of urban plans (and 10% of state plans) adequately address evacuation of transportation-disadvantaged groups (that is, anyone without a car)
• "Furthermore, in one of five major cities GAO visited, officials believed that few residents would require evacuation assistance despite the U.S. Census reporting 16.5 percent of car-less households in that major city."
• Most state and urban areas seriously underestimate the preparation and planning required to move disabled people

The upshot? Have your own plan ahead of time, either your car or someone else's.

You can download the whole report by clicking here.

Three American soldiers killed by a roadside bomb northwest of Baghdad.

Four American soldiers killed under other circumstances.

Twenty-five people killed by a triple car bombing in southwestern Baghdad.

Seventeen people killed by a car bomb near the Abu Hanifa mosque in Azamiyah, Baghdad.

Five people killed by a roadside bomb in the Bab al-Sharji market, Baghdad.

Five people killed by a bomb in a CD player in a market in Baghdad.

A police officer killed by a roadside bomb in Sheikh Omar district.

One police officer killed by a mortar in central Baghdad.

Three children killed by a roadside bomb in Kirkuk.

Major General Imad Mohsen Jaafar of the Interior Ministry killed by gunmen in northern Baghdad.

Forty-nine bodies, most tortured, found across Baghdad.

al Jazeera article
CNN article
AP reporting

The government of Pakistan recently announced that it plans to mine and fence portions of its 2,400 km border with Afghanistan. The government of Afghanistan has reacted poorly to this idea, suggesting that it's a dodge around a real problem of elements within Pakistani security forces supporting Taliban remnants in Afghanistan.

Depending on how serious an effort this is, the Pakistani government will face the serious problem of trying to separate Pashtuni people from their relatives and allies on the other side of the border.

al Jazeera article
CNN article

As fighters from the Islamic Courts retreat in the face of the Ethiopian military, an action they've called "a military tactic...a kind of military retreat," they're calling for help:

Following their defeat in Baladweyne, leaders of the Islamic Courts called on Ethiopian soldiers to withdraw.

Sheikh Mohamed Ibrahim Bilal, a senior Islamic Courts commander, said: "We call on the international community to act soon about this violation."

They're not getting any help from the AU, however:

Patrick Mazimhaka, the deputy chairman of the AU's Commission, told the BBC the African Union would not criticise Ethiopia as it had "given us ample warning that it feels threatened by the UIC".

Mr Mazimhaka said the international community had a responsibility to support the transitional government.

Ethiophia has hit the airport in Mogadishu; will they be content with preventing the loss of the transitional government's last stronghold in Baidoa, or will they try to clear Mogadishu as well? Based on the American experience, that seems like a bad plan -- however, unlike us, the Ethiopians might be able to call on a revitalized Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and Counter-Terrorism for help.

Update: The AP says that the combined Somali-Ethiopian force is moving on Mogadishu. Also:

Francois Lonseny Fall, the top U.N. envoy to Somalia, also said 35,000 Somalis had crossed into neighboring Kenya to escape the fighting, which forced the U.N. to suspend aid delivery to two million Somalis.

al Jazeera article
BBC article

One sticking point for anti-immigration polemicists in the immigration debates of 2006 was that some individuals in pro-immigration rallies flew Mexican flags.

How un-American, right?

Well, that all depends. Are you perhaps a resident of Arizona or New Mexico? Because your flags have colors taken from Spanish standards. Admittedly, that's pretty historical.

Are you from California or Texas? Because your flags are actually the flags of independent nations, annexed either quickly (California) or after a while (Texas) into the United States.

Are you from Hawaii? Because your flag has a British flag on it.

Are you from Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, or South Carolina? The flags of Alabama, Arkansas, and Florida all include reminders of the Confederate flag. Georgia's flag is the first national flag of the Confederacy, with the state seal superimposed in the middle. Mississippi's flag contains the stars and bars, the second national flag of the Confederacy. South Carolina continues to fly its flag from the secession years.

If the flag of a secessionist force that tried to destroy the United States and led to the deaths of millions of Americans is an acceptable part of our national cultural heritage, then I defy you to produce a legitimate complaint against immigrants to this country waving a Mexican flag at a rally. All the good people in my neighborhood who have Mexican flags on the backs of their cars go to work every day, pay into Social Security every day, and contribute to the fabric of my very healthy local community. If they want to acknowledge where they came from, that's great.

I'm glad to have them. I hope they're glad to have me.

Earlier this week, a substantial British force hit the al-Jamiyat prison in Basra, home of that city's Serious Crime Unit. They released the prisoners and demolished the building. Now city officials in Basra are complaining:

Mohammed al Abadi, head of the city's council, had said the raid was illegal and threatened to stop co-operation.

And Basra police commander Brigadier General Ali Ibrahim said: "This storming operation is illegal and violates human rights."

Hussein al-Taakhi has something to say on the matter of "violating human rights." He was held and tortured at al-Jamiyat for two months, and was probably among those slated to be killed in advance of the planned, Iraqi-controlled, "prisoner release." The accelerated threat of death was the British motive for moving in.

You can read al-Taakhi's story in this IRIN report. After his ordeal he's quitting the city of Basra:

"Today I’m with my family, but I will be leaving later today to the capital before another crazy group arrests me again. My wife is taking care of my wounds which I sustained as a result of torture, but no one can heal the memories of those terrible 48 days in that prison.”

The BBC article

Ethiopia has answered the question of what they're going to do with Mogadishu. They're besieging it.

"We are not going to fight for Mogadishu, to avoid civilian casualties. Our troops will surround Mogadishu until they [the Islamists] surrender," Ambassador Abdikarin Farah told reporters in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Ethiopian forces earlier pushed Islamic Courts forces out of Jowhar and Balad, something local residents cheered.

Amidst all this, the AU has rescinded its support for Ethiopia in Somalia.

In a hastily convened session, the African Union demanded all foreign players, including Ethiopia, immediately withdraw their forces from Somalia.

"We appeal for urgent support for the transitional government and the withdrawal of all troops and foreign elements," AU chairman Alpha Omar Konare said in a statement.

What changed their mind?

I don't see Mogadishu falling quickly, especially if, as they've claimed, Islamic Courts forces are intentionally withdrawing into the city. If the Ethiopian military can actually lay in an effective siege, then civilians inside the city will suffer, regardless (although they could offer a civilian exit amnesty, similar to the approach the Marines took with Fallujah).

CNN article

Well, that went much faster than I expected. Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) forces ditched Mogadishu in advance of the arrival of the combined Somali-Ethiopian force, departing south for Kismayo. They're saying it's too early to call this a loss, hinting at an Iraq-style insurgency. But if they were planning to make a stand, the place was probably Mogadishu.

One former Islamic courts fighter said: "We have been defeated. I have removed my uniform. Most of my comrades have also changed into civilian clothes."

Yesterday, a Somali reporter in Mogadishu said that the Islamist hold in Mogadishu was already slipping, with many clansmen who'd signed on with the top power now signing off again, reclaiming territory for themselves. The UIC evacuation of Mogadishu has borne this out, with both the BBC and al Jazeera reporting that various clans are quickly reasserting control over different parts of the city.

The big worry now is not about an ever-more unlikely Islamist insurgency, but about a return to "business as usual" with warring clans fighting continuously in the capital city. The UN reports that this is already happening:

The fighting began in the morning in the Yaqshiid district of north Mogadishu, after militia tried to loot an arms storage warehouse, reported Hassan Mahamud Ahmed, editor of the San'aa newspaper in Mogadishu.

"Each clan is now trying to rearm and repossess weapons taken from them by the courts, in anticipation of the return of the warlords," he said.

al Jazeera article
BBC article
CNN article
IRIN article

Three American soldiers killed in two roadside bomb attacks in Baghdad.

Ten people killed by a car bomb in central Baghdad.

Seven people killed by dual car bombs in Baab al-Sharji.

BBC article
AP reporting

Documents placed in the British National Archives show that in 1976, various officials warned Prime Minister Harold Wilson that a war with Argentina over the Falklands was inevitable, if talks did not occur. They also point to the ongoing debate about the expensive measures that would have had to be taken to put in place preventative defenses around the Falklands. This kind of debate -- how much prevention, and how much is it worth? -- comes up over and over again in international affairs.

You can read more about the 1976 papers by clicking here.

Delving even deeper into history, this year the United Kingdom will finally pay off its World War II debts owed to Canada and the United States. The loans of $4.33 billion from the US and $1.19 billion from Canada will end up costing the UK $7.5 billion and $2 billion to pay off.

The UK still owes and is owed money from World War I, but all such payments have been on hold since 1934. I wonder if, perhaps, some of the countries involved no longer exist.

You can read about the UK making good by clicking here.

Three Marines killed in combat in Anbar province (that's 106 American soldiers killed this month).

One British soldier killed in Basra.

Ten people, including imam Khadhum Hamid, killed by a suicide bomber near a Shiite mosque in Khalis.

Thirty-two bodies, tortured, found across Iraq.

Two oil company employees killed by gunmen in Mosul.

A police officer and two other people killed in attacks in Musayyib.

Two police officers killed during an attack on a checkpoint in Jurf al-Sakhar.

The AP's low estimate for this month's violence is about seventy-six deaths per day across Iraq (focused in Baghdad, of course).

A police officer and another person shot by gunmen in Ramadi.

AP reporting
al Jazeera article

British investigators are trying to figure out the whereabouts of a businessman who may have been traveling with one Dimitri Kovtun, the latter now under investigation by German authorities for his possible role in trafficking polonium. Russian authorities refused the Germans access to the Aeroflot flight Kovtun took to Germany, instead insisting he was not an assassin, but rather another assassination target. They've gone on to offer -- with a straight face -- the suggestion that former Yukos oil executive Leonid Nevzlin was behind the killing of Alexander Litvinenko. This claim might be vaguely more credible -- although not actually credible -- were Russia not already trying to get Nevzlin extradited from Israel on somewhat suspect fraud charges.

Of course, if you don't buy that Nevzlin did it, maybe you'll go for another former Yukos executive. I'd recommend Mikhail Khodorkovsky on the basis of his already being in jail, but the Russian Prosecutor General's office beat me to the punch. They've questioned him already.

With misdirection this clumsy, it would be better for Putin to just be quiet and leave it alone. Litvinenko's already out of the news cycle; blaming Yukos execs just pushes him back in.